The most recent Rasmussen Reports election poll in Montana shows incumbent Republican Senator Conrad Burns and Democrat Jon Tester tied at 47% (see crosstabs). This month’s results mark an improvement for Burns, who trailed Tester by seven points in last month’s poll and by four points in May.

Tester's support among fellow Democrats has slipped from 90% to 84%. Burns now gets 14% of the vote from Democrats, up from 7% a month ago.

The race had been leaning towards the Democrats, but Rasmussen Reports now rates it as a toss up.

Last fall, Burns had a double digit lead in our inaugural poll on this race. However, as the Abramoff scandal unfolded, his lead disappeared by January. Since then, the Montana Senator has been considered one of the nation’s most vulnerable incumbents (although never quite in as much trouble as Pennsylvania’s Rick Santorum).

Though Burns has rebounded in the most recent poll, 35% of voters report having a “very unfavorable” opinion of the sitting senator. Just 17% who have a “very favorable” opinion of him. Overall, a slight majority have at least a somewhat unfavorable opinion of Burns. If he survives this race, it may have little to do with the Senator himself. This could be an instance where an unpopular candidate is carried to victory by the state’s Republican leanings and a preference for GOP control of the Senate.

Tester, on the other hand, is viewed favorably by 54% of voters and unfavorably by 41%. Those figures include 24% with have a “very favorable” opinion of the Democratic farmer and 17% with a “very unfavorable” opinion.

While Burns wants to distance himself from the long shadow of the Jack Abramoff scandal, just 13% of voters now say that government corruption is the top issue on their minds this campaign season.

Twice as many, 27%, name the economy as issue number one. Tester has a modest advantage over Burns among those concerned about the economy and a big advantage among those concerned primarily about the War in Iraq.

Burns has a big advantage among those concerned about immigration and national security.

Burns made news again last week for a heated exchange he had with a group of firefighters in a Montana airport. Burns reportedly criticized the group in front of witnesses for what he considered a poor job in containing recent wildfires in the state. Following the encounter, Team Burns focused on damage control and issued apologies; Tester took the opportunity to issue a statement in support of firefighters.

Montana’s voters are nearly evenly divided on their opinion of President Bush: 50% approve of his job performance and 49% disapprove (39% strongly so.) Governor Brian Schweitzer (D), on the other hand, remains popular with his constituents. Seventy-three percent (73%) of those surveyed approve of their governor’s job performance.

Crosstabs are available for Premium Members.