Republican Senator Conrad Burns once again trails both Democrats vying for his job. Perhaps even more stunning is that a relatively unknown GOP candidate now polls better than Burns when matched against the Democrats.

Burns now trails State Senate President Jon Tester 48% to 44%. A month ago, Burns held a very slight lead over Tester. They were even at the end of March.

After pulling to within two points of State Auditor John Morrison last month, Burns now trails by four, 49% to 45%. In March, Burns trailed Morrison by five points (see crosstabs).

Burns has been hampered by his relationship with convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff.

Bob Keenan (R), the minority leader in the state Senate, is challenging Burns for the Republican nomination. While he is considered a long shot in the Primary competition, Keenan does better in the polls against both Morrison and Tester.

The relatively unknown Keenan has a one-point edge over Tester 43% to 42% and trails Morrison by two, 43% to 41%. Earlier surveys had shown that other, better known, Republicans, would soundly defeat either Democrat.

In fairness, these results have less to do with Keenan than with the Republican leanings of the state.

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Two years ago, President Bush carried Montana by twenty percentage points, 59% to 39%. Republicans are trusted more than Democrats in the state on the economy, national security, immigration, and Iraq. Democrats have the edge only on energy policy.

With these built-in GOP advantages, a two-time incumbent Senator should have no difficulty winning a third term. But, the Abramoff matter has clearly made this a very competitive race. Senator Burns may be in better shape than Pennsylvania's Rick Santorum, but it's hard to think of another incumbent who would switch places with Burns at this time.

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