Missouri’s Senate race remains the closest in the nation. The latest Rasmussen Reports election survey shows incumbent Jim Talent (R) “leading” challenger Claire McCaskill (D) by a single point, 49% to 48% (see crosstabs). Obviously, this race remains where it has been all year in our Senate Balance of Power summary--a “Toss-up.”

We’re running out of ways to describe how close this race has been all year. Our previous Missouri poll showed McCaskill "leading" by the same margin, 49%-48%. We've now polled this race 6 times since October 1, and five of the six have shown the candidates within a point of each other (once, there was a 2-point gap). In those last six polls, each candidate has been "ahead" three times. Looking back over the whole year, the candidates have been within three points of each other 16 times out of 17. Neither Talent nor McCaskill has yet to reach the 50% mark among voters.

What it means is that a few thousand voters in Missouri might end up determining which party controls the U.S. Senate (when Jim Talent first won the seat, the outcome would have been different if roughly 10,000 voters had changed their mind… that’s 10,000 voters out of nearly two million).

The race could not be closer when looking at the candidates’ respective base votes: 92% of Democrats are supporting McCaskill and 91% of Republicans are backing Talent.

Both campaigns are pulling out the big guns in the final days of this ultra-competitive race. President Bush and Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist each made visits to the Show Me State during the past week to stump for Talent while the Democrats’ rising star, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, is scheduled to visit on McCaskill’s behalf.

Both Talent and McCaskill earn favorable ratings from 51% of voters.

Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.