After months of tying or trailing his Democratic challenger in the race for his Missouri Senate seat, Republican Senator Jim Talent now leads 46% to 41%.

Rasmussen Reports has conducted four surveys on this race so far. Three of the four surveys found Talent at 45% or 46%. Three of the four found McCaskill at 46% or 47%. Each candidate has had one poll where they registered a lower level of support. This suggests a race that could remain close all the way until September.

When likely voters were asked last September about a match-up, the two candidates were neck and neck. By November State Auditor Claire McCaskill had squeezed out a two-point lead in our survey; in January she led Talent 46% to 43%.

Senator Talent may be breathing a little easier now. But, since he remains below the 50% level of support, his seat is still considered vulnerable.

One key to look for in our March survey will be whether McCaskill's support bounces back to earlier levels. If it does, this survey's advantage for Talent will be seen as statistical noise. If it does not bounce back, we may be witnessing a trend in favor of the incumbent.

Talent is viewed favorably by 57% of voters, unfavorably by 38%. McCaskill is viewed favorably by 53%, unfavorably by 39%.

Talent pulls more support from Democrats (14%) than McCaskill does from Republicans (8%). But McCaskill wins more yeas from unaffiliated voters.

Fifty-one percent (51%) of all Missouri voters more or less approve of the job President Bush is doing. Forty-seven percent (47%) approve of the job Governor Blunt is doing; 42% disapprove.

Asked who in the nation's capital they trust more with respect to the economy and Iraq, a plurality of voters tend to trust the congressional Democrats more when it comes to the economy, and to trust the President more when it comes to Iraq. Moderates are more likely to trust the Democrats on both issues.

Three quarters of voters agree that health care, the economy, and development of alternative energy sources (an issue raised by President Bush in his State of the Union Address) are "very important" issues affecting their vote. More than half also think Iraq is "very important."

When asked to rank the relative importance of these four issues, voters most often choose the economy or Iraq as their top issue.

Other survey data, including crosstabs, is available for Premium Members