It's going down to the wire in Missouri. Democratic State Auditor Claire McCaskill now leads Republican Senator Jim Talent by a single percentage point, 44% to 43% (see crosstabs). Talent has gained a point since last month, McCaskill has lost one.

In the current poll, if we tighten the screen to those most likely to vote, it's McCaskill (D) 45% Talent (R) 44%. If we include leaners, it's McCaskill (D) 46% Talent 46% (R). No matter how we look at it, this race is way too close to call. Thirty-three percent (33%) are certain they'll vote for Talent. For McCaskill, it's 31% certain.

Additionally, this race may play a key role in determining which political party ends up in control of the U.S. Senate. Missouri is one of only two states still in the "toss-up" column in our Senate Balance of Power summary. (The other is New Jersey.)

When asked how they would vote if their vote determined the balance of power in the U.S. Senate, 46% said Democrat and 43% said they would vote Republican.

Sixty-six percent (66%) of Talent’s voters say they’re casting a vote for him while 29% are voting primarily against McCaskill.

Among McCaskill voters, 57% say they’re voting for her while 36% are voting against Talent.

McCaskill's favorables are still a little higher overall than Talent's. But the incumbent inspires both strong approval and strong disapproval from more voters.

The candidates have been going at each other hammer and tong in the campaign ads. The Senatorial Campaign Committees of both national parties have been shoveling money into the race, as have various out-of-state interests.

Crosstabs are available for Premium Members only.