The size of Senator Joseph Lieberman's advantage in his reelection bid depends on which general-election race Connecticut voters are asked about.

The latest Rasmussen Reports poll of the race shows likely voters awarding Lieberman an almost-forty-point lead, 61% to 23%, over Republican Alan Schlesinger, assuming Lieberman runs as a Democrat.

When voters consider him as an Independent, though, he collects just 44% support, versus Democrat Ned Lamont's 29% and Schlesinger's 15%. Our April survey showed Lamont winning only 20% in a three-way scenario.

The reluctance of many Democrats to support Lieberman was highlighted early in the campaign season when our December poll found former Senator and Governor Lowell Weicker picking up 32% of the vote while running as an independent against Lieberman.

Due to the anger many Democrats have about Lieberman’s continuing support for the war in Iraq, it is not clear whether Lieberman the three-term Senator will win re-nomination from his own party. The latest Rasmussen Reports poll on the Primary Race shows Lieberman nursing a six-point lead over Lamont. Lieberman had a 20-point lead over the challenger in our previous survey.

There are other reasons why the viability of an Independent campaign is much more than a merely academic question.

First, Lieberman himself has not ruled out such a candidacy. Second, and equally important, fellow Democratic Senator Chuck Schumer now says that the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) would back an Independent Lieberman run. This declaration by the DSCC leader, which further angered some Democrats, was made after some Lieberman allies have said the Senator should skip the primary and run as an independent.

There are logistical and tactical difficulties involved for Lieberman’s pursuit of an Independent candidacy. The deadline for submitting signatures to run without a party label is the day after the Democrats hold their primary. That means his campaign would have to begin collecting signatures well before Connecticut's primary is decided on August 8. Such a move is unlikely to endear the Senator to Democratic primary voters (and it would give his supporters one more reason to stay home on Primary Day).

Lieberman is viewed favorably by 67%, unfavorably by 29%. Lamont is viewed favorably by 41%, unfavorably by 37%. Schlesinger, the former mayor of Derby who officially entered the race in mid-April, is viewed favorably by 31%, unfavorably by 36%. He's still an unknown to 33%.

Crosstabs are available for Premium Members. See our Politics Page and Elections Page for other State Election results and important issues of the the day.

Premium Members can see how Connecticut voters respond to hypothetical 2008 contests matching Democrats Hillary Clinton and Al Gore against Republicans John McCain and Rudy Giuliani. Republicans John McCain and Rudy Giuliani are viewed favorably by two-thirds or more of the state’s voters. Democrats Hillary Clinton and Al Gore are viewed favorably by a little more than half. More Connecticut voters have a “very” unfavorable view of the two Democrats than hold a “very” favorable opinion.