There’s no big change in the Arizona race for U.S. Senate. That’s good news for
the incumbent Republican, who continues an apparent glide to reelection. Senator Jon Kyl now leads Democratic Jim Pederson 53% to 34% (see crosstabs). In June Kyl led the real estate developer 52% to 35%.
Only 8% are not certain of their choice; 5% say they would vote for somebody else.
But the fat lady hasn't sung yet, and Pederson's challenge will not founder for lack of funds. Since April, he has reportedly poured $1.7 million of his own money into the race. Meanwhile Senator Kyl is sitting on a war chest of about $7 million. Some observers expect the race to be the most expensive in the state's history.
Kyl is viewed favorably by 61%, unfavorably by 33%. Pedersen is viewed favorably by 39%, unfavorably by 42%; 19% don't yet know him well enough to say either way.
Arizona's primary election is September 12, but Pederson faces no opposition for the Democratic nomination and Kyl faces only nominal opposition.
Asked which electoral issues are most important to them, voters in this border state tend to put immigration at the top of the list: 32% say it's the number one issue of the six we listed. Second-ranked is the war in Iraq, which 17% consider the most important; followed by the economy (14%) and national security (13%).

In a survey we conducted in December of last year we found that 48% of Arizona voters regarded immigration as a more important issue affecting their vote than the war in Iraq.

Among voters who consider immigration and national security the top issue, Kyl wins overwhelmingly. Pederson wins big among those who consider the War in Iraq and government corruption the top issue. Pederson has a slight advantage among those most concerned with the economy.
See our story on Arizona's gubernatorial contest for details on how voters responded to questions about ballot reliability and voting procedures.

Crosstabs are available to Premium Members.