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California Governor
Neck-and-Neck Again
Tuesday, May 23, 2006
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Our April survey of the California race for governor showed Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger pulling into his first substantial lead of the year over both Democrats vying for their party's gubernatorial nomination. But, a month has gone by and the Republican is once again neck-and-neck with each potential challenger. The latest Rasmussen Reports election poll shows Schwarzenegger and State Treasurer Phil Angelides each with 45% support. When matched against State Controller Steve Westly, Schwarzenegger trails by two points, 46% to 44%. Schwarzenegger will doubtless benefit from the spate of spit balls the Democratic candidates are hurling at each other as California's primary election, to be held June 6, approaches. But the immigration debate may have dampened Schwarzenegger's numbers in recent weeks. Our April survey showing temporarily improved support for the governor was conducted before the large immigration rallies held around the country, demonstrations that provoked a backlash among foes of illegal immigration. The nation's highest-profile immigrant has been navigating a sometimes wavering course through the minefield of the immigration debate—in a state with more illegal immigrants than any other. The eventual Democratic nominee will have to face the same minefield, though, and without the advantage of being both an immigrant and a legal one. Our national polling shows that just 39% of Americans agree with President Bush's approach to immigration. Typically, American voters favor a policy that begins with gaining control of the border but is also welcoming to immigrants. Just 25% of California voters say the President is doing a good or excellent job on the immigration issue. But, they are equally divided as to whether they trust Republicans or Democrats more on the issue. Democrats are favored by California voters when it comes to the economy, national security, Iraq, and especially energy policy. Crosstabs are available for Premium Members. Governor Schwarzenegger is now viewed favorably by 51% of likely voters, unfavorably by 48%. Angelides is viewed favorably by 44%, unfavorably by 42%. Westly is viewed favorably by 48%, unfavorably by 40%. Rasmussen Reports now releases data for a three-poll rolling average on our state election polls. Used in conjunction with individual survey results, this tool will help determine whether shifting poll results are due to changes in the race or are merely statistical noise. The three-poll rolling average for March, April, and May shows Schwarzenegger leading Angelides 46% to 42%. He leads Westly 44% to 40%. However, Westly has gained significant levels of voter support in each of the last two polls. Crosstabs are available for Premium Members. Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. The Rasmussen Reports Election Edge™ Premium Service offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage available anywhere. Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
Survey of 500 Likely Voters
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