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Palin At The Top – And Bottom – for GOP Voters in 2012
Tuesday, July 07, 2009
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Alaska Governor Sarah Palin is second only to Mitt Romney as the presidential candidate Republican voters say they’ll vote for in 2012 state GOP primaries, but she’s also one of two candidates they least hope wins the party’s nomination. In a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey, it’s close to a three-way tie when GOP voters are asked whom they would vote for – from among a list of six prominent Republicans - in the 2012 party primary in their state: 25% say Romney, while 24% say Palin and 22% opt for former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee. After that, GOP primary voters list former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (14%), while Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour and Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty each received one percent (1%) of the vote. Six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate. However, among those same six potential candidates, Palin and Barbour are tied as the ones GOP voters would least like to see win the party nomination in 2012. Twenty-one percent (21%) of Republican voters nationwide say that of both Palin and Barbour. Gingrich and Palwenty tie for next on the list, with 15% each. Ten percent (10%) say Huckabee is the one they hope doesn’t get the nomination, while nine percent (9%) feel that way about Romney. Eleven percent of Republican voters (11%) are undecided. Forty percent (40%) of GOP voters nationally believe Palin has hurt her chances of winning the Republican presidential nomination in 2012 by resigning as governor of Alaska. Twenty-four percent (24%) say the resignation helps her chances, and 28% say it will have no impact on the race. But it is important to note that the first Presidential primary is nearly two-and-a-half years away. (Want a free daily e-mail update ? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter. Seventy-six percent (76%) of Republican voters have a favorable opinion of Palin, even after her decision to resign as governor of Alaska, with 45% whose view of her is very favorable. Palin trails Huckabee, who unsuccessfully sought the Republican presidential nomination in 2008. Huckabee is favored by 78%, with 41% who feel very favorably toward him. Twenty-one percent (21%) have an unfavorable view of Palin, with nine percent (9%) very unfavorable. For Huckabee, unfavorables are 17%, including five percent (5%) very unfavorable. Romney, another unsuccessful 2008 contender, follows closely after Huckabee and Palin. Seventy-three percent (73%) view the former Massachusetts governor favorably, including 39% very favorable. Nineteen percent (19%) have an unfavorable opinion of Romney, with five percent (5%) very unfavorable. Sixty-five percent (65%) have a favorable view of Gingrich, including 35% very favorable. His unfavorables are 29%, with 11% very unfavorable. For Pawlenty and Barbour, a big factor is their lack of national exposure. In the case of both men, 28% of GOP voters don’t know enough about them to express an opinion. However, 38% have a favorable view of Pawlenty, with eight percent (8%) who say that opinion is very favorable. His 33% unfavorables include nine percent (9%) very unfavorable. Barbour is the only one of six potential GOP candidates for whom voters have more negative feelings than positive. Thirty-four percent (34%) see him in a favorable light, with seven percent (7%) very favorable. But 37% have an unfavorable opinion of the Mississippi governor, including 13% whose view is very unfavorable. Former Vice President Dick Cheney, who chose not to run in 2008 but has been an outspoken critic of Obama’s in recent weeks, is viewed favorably by 59% of Republican voters, including 30% who are very favorable toward him. Thirty-four percent (34%) have an unfavorable regard for Cheney, with 14% very unfavorable. Rasmussen surveying detailing how Republicans view the candidates in terms of issues and ideology will be released tomorrow. Seventy-five percent (75%) of GOP voters nationwide say it is at least somewhat likely that a Republican candidate will defeat President Obama if he seeks reelection. Of that group, 41% say it’s very likely Obama will be defeated. In late April, for the first time since Obama was elected president last November, more than half of U.S. voters (53%) said it is at least somewhat likely that the next occupant of the White House will be a Republican. By mid-May, just 37% of Republican voters said their party was leaderless. This marked a significant turnaround from two months earlier when 68% felt that way. Small percentages of GOP voters listed McCain, national party chairman Michael Steele and Palin, in descending order, as the party’s leaders in the May survey.Republicans regained the lead over Democrats last week in the Generic Congressional Ballot. Voters also now trust Republicans more than Democrats on six out of 10 key issues, including the top issue of the economy. Obama’s relatively stable approval ratings have begun to slip in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. Despite big gains in last November’s election which further strengthened Democratic control over both houses of Congress, voters are more likely to say congressional Republicans have about the same views they do than Democrats. Democrats and Republicans see a very different economy. Democrats are evenly divided as to whether the economy is getting better or worse while Republicans believe it is getting worse. That helps explain why 81% of Republicans are against passage of a second stimulus plan. Democrats are much more evenly divided, but a plurality of those in Obama’s party (45%) like the idea. Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free) or follow us on Twitter. Let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news. See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available to Premium Members only. Rasmussen Reports is an electronic media company specializing in the collection, publication and distribution of public opinion polling information. We poll on a variety of topics in the fields of politics, business and lifestyle, updating our site’s content on a news cycle throughout the day, everyday. Rasmussen Reports Platinum Members get an all-access pass to polling news, analysis and insight not available to the general public. Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade. To learn more about our methodology, click here. TOP STORIESNevada Senate: Reid (D) 45%, Angle (R) 43% Balance of Power: Missouri Shifts to Leans Republican Illinois Senate: Giannoulias (D) 43%, Kirk (R) 41% Liberal Tax Revolt Game-Changer? 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