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Election 2012: Generic Republican 47%, Obama 42%

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

A generic Republican candidate leads President Obama by five points in a hypothetical Election 2012 matchup for the week ending Sunday, December 11.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds the generic Republican earning 47% support to Obama's 42%.  Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted December 5-December 11, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Support for a generic Republican ties the highest level measured since weekly tracking began in May. Last week, a generic GOP candidate led the president 48% to 42%.  The incumbent has led only twice in weekly surveys since late May. Since  that time, the Republican has earned 43% to 49% support, while Obama has picked up 40% to 45% of the vote

In head-to-head matchups with named Republican candidates, however, the president leads all GOP hopefuls but two. Surging former House Speaker Newt Gingrich now edges the president 45% to 43%, while former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney continues to run essentially even with Obama. 

The president's full-month job approval numbers improved a bit in November but are still lower than at any point prior to a few months ago.

In Florida and Ohio, a generic Republican candidate leads the president at this stage.  The numbers between the president and a generic Republican are close in North Carolina, Michigan and Pennsylvania.  Obama leads the Republican in California, but his approval rating has fallen below 50% in the reliably Democratic state.

Rasmussen Reports will provide new data on the generic matchup each Tuesday at 3 pm Eastern until the field of prospective Republican nominees narrows to a few serious contenders.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted November 28-December 4, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

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