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A Final Look at Massachusetts Election Night Poll
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
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Republicans and Democrats will certainly spar in the coming days about what the Massachusetts election means for health care reform. The very fact that a Republican could win the Massachusetts race while campaigning against the proposed legislation in Congress is the biggest single data point, but the data shows a more complex picture. As noted in data released earlier, 56% of Massachusetts voters named health care as the most important issue. That suggests it was a big issue, but Democrat Martha Coakley actually won among those voters by a 53% to 46% margin. · Among the 25% who named the economy as the top issue, Republican Scott Brown came out narrowly ahead, 52% to 47%. · Only two other issues—national security and taxes—were named as most important by at least five percent (5%) of voters. Brown clearly had the edge on both. · Among those who named national security as most important, Brown won 67% to 29%. · For those who saw taxes as number one, it was Brown 87%, Coakley 13%. The picture gets even murkier when you look at the correlation between approval of the health care plan. · Among those who Strongly Favor the plan before Congress, Coakley won 97% of the vote. · Among those who Strongly Oppose the plan, 98% voted for Brown. · Coakley also picked up 90% of those who Somewhat Favor the plan while Brown was supported by 78% of those who Somewhat Oppose it. · One key to Brown’s victory is that 41% Strongly Opposed the plan while just 25% Strongly Favored it. Last February, President Obama listed four priorities for Congress to act upon. Voters in Massachusetts, like voters nationwide, named deficit reduction as the top goal and health care second. · Among those who named deficit reduction as most important, Brown won 79% to 21%. · Among those who named health care reform as the top presidential priority, Coakley won 85% to 19%. · While advocates of reform argue that passing health care reform will reduce the deficit, voters nationwide overwhelmingly believe that the plan will cost more than projected and increase the deficit. There was a strong correlation between opinions about the president and votes in the Massachusetts race. · Among those who Strongly Approve of the way Obama is handling the job, Coakley won 96% to three percent (3%). · Among those who Strongly Disapprove, Brown won 97% to two percent (2%). · Brown also won the vote from 95% of those who Somewhat Disapprove of the president’s job performance. · However, among those who only Somewhat Approve of the job he's doing, Coakley received just 69% of the vote. While there was a somewhat similar correlation to views about Democratic Governor Deval Patrick, there was a clear suggestion that perceptions of the governor’s performance hurt Coakley. Among those voters who approve of the president’s job performance but disapprove of the governor’s, Brown won 93% to seven percent (7%). These voters accounted for just over 15% of all voters. Rasmussen Reports will continue to track the President’s job approval on a daily basis and will provide new data from Election 2010 Senate and gubernatorial race polls just about every day. The latest on elections, current events, business and lifestyle topics can be found on the Rasmussen Reports home page. See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available to Premium Members only. Rasmussen Reports is an electronic media company specializing in the collection, publication and distribution of public opinion polling information. We poll on a variety of topics in the fields of politics, business and lifestyle, updating our site’s content on a news cycle throughout the day, everyday. Rasmussen Reports Platinum Members get an all-access pass to polling news, analysis and insight not available to the general public. Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade. To learn more about our methodology, click here. This telephone survey of 1,000 adults who voted in the Massachusetts Senate Election was conducted by Rasmussen Reports January 19, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence (see methodology). TOP STORIESNevada Senate: Reid (D) 45%, Angle (R) 43% Balance of Power: Missouri Shifts to Leans Republican Illinois Senate: Giannoulias (D) 43%, Kirk (R) 41% Liberal Tax Revolt Game-Changer? By Lawrence Kudlow Colorado Senate: GOP’s Buck, Norton Still Hold Modest Leads Cry Racism! and Let Slip the Dogs of Politics By Tony Blankley Florida Senate: Crist-Rubio Still a Toss-Up Adults See Alcohol, Cigarettes Riskier Than Marijuana 54% Favor Justice Department Action Against Sanctuary Cities |