Senator Blanche Lambert Lincoln has found herself right in the middle of the national debate over health care, and that’s a tough spot as she prepares to face Arkansas voters in 2010.

As she did in September, Lincoln trails four possible Republican challengers in the latest Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 survey. In fact, support for the incumbent ranges from only 39% to 41% in these match-ups.

The two-term senator, who was reelected with 54% of the vote in 2004, appears more vulnerable because of her visible and pivotal role in the Senate debate over health care. Lincoln was the last Democrat to vote for allowing the debate to formally begin, and she has taken pains to point out that a vote to begin debate is not a vote for the bill.

Looking at the data, it’s easy to understand Lincoln’s concern. Against all four Republicans, she leads by wide margins among those who favor the health care plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats. The senator even leads by a wide margin among those who Somewhat Oppose the legislation. But among those who Strongly Oppose the health care plan, Lincoln trails every potential Republican challenger by more than 50 percentage points.

The really bad news for Lincoln is that 56% of Arkansas voters Strongly Oppose the congressional health care plan. Just 18% Strongly Favor it.

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When those with less intense opinions are included, 32% of Arkansas voters support the proposed health care legislation and 65% oppose it. Those numbers have changed little since September. While most Americans are opposed to the congressional plan, opposition is higher in Arkansas than it is nationally.

Seventy-four percent (74%) of Arkansas voters believe the plan will increase the federal budget deficit, and 83% think it is likely to lead to higher taxes on the middle class. Again, the numbers from Arkansas show more skepticism than the national averages.

Just 36% of Arkansas voters favor a government-sponsored health care option while 47% are opposed. However, if the plan might encourage some employers to drop coverage and force workers on to the government option, just 17% like the idea. Nationally, 63% say guaranteeing that no one is forced to change their health insurance coverage is a higher priority than giving consumers the choice of a "public option."State Senator Gilbert Baker is considered by some to be Lincoln's strongest potential challenger, and he leads her 47% to 41%.

State Senate Minority Leader Kim Hendren beats Lincoln 46% to 39%.

Curtis Coleman, a private businessman with ties to former Arkansas governor and presidential hopeful Mike Huckabee, holds a 44% to 40% lead over the incumbent. Tom Cox, head of the Arkansas T.E.A. Party, leads Lincoln 43% to 40%

Nineteen percent (19%) of Arkansas voters have a very favorable opinion of Lincoln, while 36% view her very unfavorably. Those numbers are considerably weaker than they were earlier. In September, 26% offered a Very Favorable opinion and 28% said Very Unfavorable.

Very favorables and very unfavorables for the GOP challengers are generally in single digits. At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with strong opinions more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

Given the low name recognition of the challengers and the consistency of the support for Lincoln, the new poll suggests that the race so far is little more than a referendum on the incumbent.

On other issues, 51% of Arkansas voters favor sending more troops to Afghanistan while 34% would like to reduce the number of troops in that troubled country. The survey was conducted on the evening the president gave a nationally televised speech outlining his plan for the war in Afghanistan, which includes sending 30,000 more troops there but withdrawing forces within 18 months.

By a 56% to 26% margin, Arkansas voters believe that cancelling the rest of the stimulus spending would create more jobs than spending it. By a 71% to 13% margin, they say tax cuts are better than increased government spending for creating jobs. Nationally, most voters share those views.

Republican presidential candidate John McCain carried Arkansas by 20 points over Obama last November, and just 34% of voters in the state now approve of the president’s job performance. That’s down three points since September. Nationally, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows that the president’s job approval ratings have been just under the 50% mark for a couple of months.

But 70% approve of the job Democratic Governor Mike Beebe is doing while only 28% disapprove.

Rasmussen Reports has begun surveying potential 2010 Senate match-ups and has released findings from California, Colorado, Connecticut, Iowa, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New York, North Carolina and Ohio.

Rasmussen Reports also has released data on the 2010 governor’s races in Arizona, California, Colorado, Iowa, New York and Ohio.

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