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Warner Still Way Ahead in Virginia’s Senate Race

Former Democratic Governor Mark Warner’s lead continues to grow over former Republican Governor Jim Gilmore in Virginia’s race for the United States Senate. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds Warner on top 59% to 33%. Last month, Warner enjoyed a 57% to 34% lead.

When “leaners” are included, the Democrat now leads 61% to 35%.

Warner is viewed favorably by 68%, up slightly from 66% in July.

Gilmore’s ratings have also improved slightly over the past month. The Republican is now viewed favorably by 49%, up from 47% last month.

While the Senate race appears to be no contest, the race for Virginia’s Electoral College votes remains very competitive. Sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free) and we will keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.

Warner, who is set to be the keynote speaker at the Democratic National Convention later this month, has been favored to win the race ever since both candidates announced their intentions to run. The two men are competing for the Senate seat currently held by Republican John Warner (no relation to the Democratic candidate). Warner served as Governor from 2002 to 2006 and Gilmore served from 1998 to 2002. Prior to his term as Governor, Gilmore served as Attorney General of Virginia.

This month, Warner earns support from 94% of Democrats and 19% of Republicans in Virginia. Gilmore is backed by 71% of Republicans and just 4% of Democrats. Warner dominates his opponent among unaffiliated voters, 62% to 25%. While Warner leads 76% to 18% among moderate voters and 89% to 8% among liberal voters, Gilmore leads just 59% to 32% among conservatives.

Virginia may be the most likely state to replace a Republican Senator with a Democrat, but it is far from being the only state likely to see that happen. At least eight other Republican Senate seats are potentially in play for Democrats including seats in Alaska, New Hampshire, Oregon, New Mexico, Colorado, Mississippi, and Minnesota.

Rasmussen Markets data gives Warner a % chance of winning re-election in November. These results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants. It costs nothing to join , so add your voice to the collective wisdom.

Governor Tim Kaine (D) earns good or excellent ratings from 47% of voters in Virginia. Twenty-three percent (23%) of voters say Kaine is doing a poor job. Kaine is considered a potential Vice Presidential candidate but it is far from clear that he would help Obama in Virginia.

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Virginia Safe Democratic

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

2002 Results

Gilmore (R)

36%

34%

84%

Warner (D)

61%

60%

16% (I)

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on August 12, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Virginia Trends: Gilmore vs. Warner

Date

Gilmore

Warner

10/16/2008

36%

61%

09/25/2008

34%

60%

08/12/2008

33%

59%

07/19/2008

34%

57%

06/12/2008

33%

60%

05/08/2008

37%

55%

03/26/2008

39%

55%

02/19/2008

37%

57%

01/03/2008

38%

53%

10/30/2007

37%

53%


Favorable Ratings for Senate Candidates in Virginia

 

Gilmore

Warner

Very Favorable

14%

39%

Somewhat Favorable

34%

29%

Somewhat Unfavorable

21%

16%

Very Unfavorable

22%

13%

Not Sure

9%

3%


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.