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Virginia Senate: Warner Still Way Ahead

Democrat Mark Warner continues to hold a solid lead over Republican Jim Gilmore in Virginia’s race for the United States Senate. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds Warner ahead 57% to 34%. When “leaners” are included, Warner leads 59% to 36%.

The two men are competing for the Senate seat currently held by Republican John Warner (no relation to the Democratic candidate). Almost from the moment the incumbent Senator announced his retirement, the Democrats have been favored to win this race. Both men were also former governors of Virginia, Warner serving from 2002 to 2006 and Gilmore served from 1998 to 2002. Prior to his term as Governor, Gilmore served as Attorney General of Virginia.

Warner is supported by 95% of Democrats in Virginia and 17% of Republicans. Gilmore is backed by 74% of Republicans and just 2% of Democrats. Among unaffiliated voters, Warner leads 52% to 27%.

While Warner leads 61% to 28% among women, he leads 51% to 41% among men in Virginia.

The Democrat is viewed favorably by 66%, down from 70% last month. He is viewed unfavorably by 28%, up from 24% last month. Gilmore’s numbers are 47% favorable and 44% unfavorable. Gilmore’s numbers are little changed from last month.

Virginia may be the most likely state to replace a Republican Senator with a Democrat, but it is far from being the only state likely to see that happen. At least eight other Republican Senate seats are potentially in play for Democrats including seats in Alaska, New Hampshire, Oregon, New Mexico, Colorado, Mississippi, Minnesota, and Kentucky.

Rasmussen Markets data gives Warner a % chance of winning re-election in November. These results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants. It costs nothing to join , so add your voice to the collective wisdom.

Governor Tim Kaine (D) earns good or excellent ratings from 48% of voters in Virginia. That number is down from 51% last month. Twenty-one percent (21%) of voters say Kaine is doing a poor job. Kaine is considered a potential Vice Presidential candidate.

Virginia’s Presidential race is now tied.

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Virginia Safe Democratic

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

2002 Results

Gilmore (R)

36%

34%

84%

Warner (D)

61%

60%

16% (I)

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on July 16, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Virginia Trends: Gilmore vs. Warner

Date

Gilmore

Warner

10/16/2008

36%

61%

09/25/2008

34%

60%

08/12/2008

33%

59%

07/19/2008

34%

57%

06/12/2008

33%

60%

05/08/2008

37%

55%

03/26/2008

39%

55%

02/19/2008

37%

57%

01/03/2008

38%

53%

10/30/2007

37%

53%


Favorable Ratings for Senate Candidates in Virginia

 

Gilmore

Warner

Very Favorable

14%

39%

Somewhat Favorable

34%

29%

Somewhat Unfavorable

21%

16%

Very Unfavorable

22%

13%

Not Sure

9%

3%


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.