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Virginia Senate: Warner Continues to Dominate Gilmore

There are no surprises in the latest polling on the U.S. Senate race in Virginia.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds former Democratic Governor Mark Warner’s with 60% of the vote and former Republican Governor Jim Gilmore with 34% (see crosstabs). That’s virtually identical to last month’s results and consistent with every other survey conducted on the race this year. Virginia is the most solid of all the likely Democratic gains in the Senate races this year.

Warner is viewed favorably by 68%, unchanged from a month ago.

Gilmore’s ratings dropped two points to 47% favorable.

While the Senate race appears to be no contest, the race for Virginia’s Electoral College votes remains very competitive.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).

Warner has been favored to win the race ever since both candidates announced their intentions to run. The two men are competing for the Senate seat currently held by Republican John Warner (no relation to the Democratic candidate). Warner served as Governor from 2002 to 2006 and Gilmore served from 1998 to 2002. Prior to his term as Governor, Gilmore served as Attorney General of Virginia.

Virginia may be the most likely state to replace a Republican Senator with a Democrat, but it is far from being the only state likely to see that happen. Many Republican Senate seats are potentially in play for Democrats including seats in Alaska, New Hampshire, Oregon, New Mexico, Colorado, Mississippi, Minnesota and North Carolina.

The only Democratic incumbent polling below 50% is New Jersey's Frank Lautenberg.

Rasmussen Markets data gives Warner a % chance of winning re-election in November. These results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants. It costs nothing to join , so add your voice to the collective wisdom.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.

Virginia Safe Democratic

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

2002 Results

Gilmore (R)

36%

34%

84%

Warner (D)

61%

60%

16% (I)

This telephone survey of 700 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on September 25, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Virginia Trends: Gilmore vs. Warner

Date

Gilmore

Warner

10/16/2008

36%

61%

09/25/2008

34%

60%

08/12/2008

33%

59%

07/19/2008

34%

57%

06/12/2008

33%

60%

05/08/2008

37%

55%

03/26/2008

39%

55%

02/19/2008

37%

57%

01/03/2008

38%

53%

10/30/2007

37%

53%


Favorable Ratings for Senate Candidates in Virginia

 

Gilmore

Warner

Very Favorable

14%

39%

Somewhat Favorable

34%

29%

Somewhat Unfavorable

21%

16%

Very Unfavorable

22%

13%

Not Sure

9%

3%


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.