Oregon Senator Gordon Smith is in dangerous territory again, virtually tied with Jeff Merkley, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state.
Just one month ago, Smith had an eight-point lead but still received under 50% support from voters. Any incumbent senator who polls under 50% is considered vulnerable. In July, Merkley was ahead 43% to 41%.
This month, Smith earns support from 84% of Oregon Republicans, while Merkley earns the vote from 76% of Democrats. The challenger leads 46% to 42% among unaffiliated voters in the Beaver State.
While Smith leads 49% to 44% among men, the race is essentially tied among women, among whom Merkley has a 45% to 44% edge.
Favorable ratings for the incumbent senator have fallen over the past month. Smith is now viewed favorably by 49%, down from 55% in August. Forty-six percent (46%) view him unfavorably, up from 38% a month ago. Merkley’s numbers have improved slightly this month, but still aren’t entirely positive. The challenger is viewed favorably by 45%, up from 42%, and unfavorably by 46%, up from 45% last month.
With just weeks left to go before the election, Smith is far from being the only Republican incumbent senator in a vulnerable position. GOP seats in Alaska,New Hampshire,New Mexico,Colorado,Virginia and Mississippi are all in play. The Democrats now have a six-point lead in the Generic Congressional Ballot.
Rasmussen Markets data currently gives Smith a % chance of keeping his Senate seat. These figures are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants.
Oregon Governor Ted Kulongoski, a Democrat, earns good or excellent ratings from 41% of voters, while 26% say he is doing a poor job.
Presidential polling has also been released this week for Colorado,Florida,Montana, Ohio,Pennsylvania and Virginia. The latest numbers from Oregon’s Presidential race will be released today at 5 p.m.
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This telephone survey of 700 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on September 15, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
See Methodology.
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Oregon Trends: Smith vs. Merkley |
||
|---|---|---|
|
Date |
Smith |
Merkley |
|
10/30/2008 |
46% |
49% |
|
47% |
47% |
|
|
46% |
45% |
|
|
47% |
39% |
|
|
41% |
43% |
|
|
47% |
38% |
|
|
45% |
42% |
|
|
03/25/2008 |
47% |
34% |
|
48% |
30% |
|
|
Favorable Ratings for Senate Candidates in Oregon |
||
|---|---|---|
|
Smith |
Merkley |
|
|
Very Favorable |
18% |
17% |
|
Somewhat Favorable |
32% |
32% |
|
Somewhat Unfavorable |
29% |
20% |
|
Very Unfavorable |
20% |
28% |
|
Not Sure |
1% |
3% |
Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
