If it's in the News, it's in our Polls. Public opinion polling since 2003.

 

Election 2008: Oregon Senate
Merkley Leads Smith By Three in Oregon Senate Race

Democratic challenger Jeff Merkley has taken a slight lead over incumbent Republican Gordon Smith in Oregon’s U.S. Senate race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows Merkley at 49% and Smith at 46%. Four percent (4%) say they’ll vote for some other candidate, most likely Constitution Party candidate Dave Brownlow. One percent (1%) of voters in the state remain undecided.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).

Smith is viewed favorably by 50% of voters statewide. Merkley earns positive reviews from 49%.

Smith, who is seeking a third term in the Senate, is supported by 90% of the state’s Republicans and 41% of unaffiliated voters. Merkley, the speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives, is backed by 87% of Democrats and 44% of unaffiliated voters.

The two candidates are tied among men, while Merkley leads by six among women (see full demographic crosstabs).

Merkley may get some help from the top of the ticket as Barack Obama is doing very well in the race for Oregon’s Electoral College votes. New numbers on that race will be released over the weekend.

Rasmussen Markets data currently gives Smith a % chance of keeping his Senate seat. These figures are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants.

Along with Smith’s, other Republican Senate seats at risk this year include ones in Alaska,North Carolina, Georgia,New Hampshire, New Mexico, Colorado, Mississippi,Minnesota and Virginia. Forty-five percent (45%) of Oregon voters give Democratic Governor Ted Kulongoski good or excellent marks for job performance while 27% say he’s doing a poor job.

Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free)… let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available for Premium Members only.

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on October 30, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Oregon Trends: Smith vs. Merkley

Date

Smith

Merkley

10/30/2008

46%

49%

47%

47%

46%

45%

47%

39%

41%

43%

47%

38%

45%

42%

03/25/2008

47%

34%

48%

30%


Favorable Ratings for Senate Candidates in Oregon

 

Smith

Merkley

Very Favorable

18%

17%

Somewhat Favorable

32%

32%

Somewhat Unfavorable

29%

20%

Very Unfavorable

20%

28%

Not Sure

1%

3%


Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.