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North Carolina Senate: Dole Takes 14-Point Lead Over Hagan

Now that the glow of her primary victory has faded, Democrat Kay Hagan has fallen fourteen points behind incumbent Senator Elizabeth Dole.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in North Carolina shows Dole attracting 53% of the vote while Hagan, a state Senator from Greensboro, earns support from 39%. The current results are almost identical to the results from two months ago. In between, however, a bounce from her victory in the Democratic Primary pulled Hagan to a tie with Dole.

Dole now leads by nineteen points among women while Dole and by nine among men. Dole attracts 90% of the Republican vote and holds an eighteen point lead among unaffiliated voters. Hagan is supported by 68% of Democrats.

Dole is viewed favorably by 62% of the state’s voters, Hagan by 45%. For Dole, that’s a six-point improvement over the past month. For Hagan, it’s an eight-point decline. Some local observers say a television ad launched by the Dole campaign has been particularly effective.

While Dole has moved above the 50% level of support, many of her Republican colleagues have not. Any incumbent who polls below 50% is generally considered vulnerable. At least nine Republican Senate seats are potentially in play for Democrats including seats in Alaska, New Hampshire, Oregon, New Mexico, Colorado, Mississippi, Minnesota, Virginia, and Kentucky. In Texas, was below 50% a month ago. Like Dole, he has gained ground in more recent polling.

So far, just two Democratic incumbents are polling below 50%--Mary Landrieu in Louisiana and Frank Lautenberg in New Jersey.

While Dole has opened a lead over Hagan, the Presidential race in North Carolina remains much closer than Republicans would like.

The Tar Heel State Governor’s race is essentially even.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Dole is given a % of keeping her job after November.

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North Carolina Toss-Up

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

2002 Results

Dole (R)

46%

45%

54%

Hagan (D)

52%

50%

45%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on June 10, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


North Carolina Trends: Dole vs. Hagan

Date

Dole

Hagan

10/29/2008

46%

52%

10/08/2008

44%

49%

09/23/2008

45%

48%

09/18/2008

45%

51%

07/17/2008

53%

41%

06/10/2008

53%

39%

05/08/2008

47%

48%

04/10/2008

52%

39%


Favorable Ratings for Senate Candidates in North Carolina

 

Dole

Hagan

Very Favorable

23%

27%

Somewhat Favorable

23%

26%

Somewhat Unfavorable

19%

19%

Very Unfavorable

31%

23%

Not Sure

3%

5%


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.