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North Carolina Senate: Dole Holds onto Solid Lead

North Carolina’s Republican Senator, Elizabeth Dole, continues to hold onto a solid lead over Democratic challenger Kay Hagan. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds the incumbent ahead 53% to 41% in the Tar Heel State.

When “leaners” are included, Dole is ahead 54% to 43%. Dole’s lead is slightly smaller than last month, when she had a fourteen-point advantage. Hagan managed to pull ahead in May, but that was little more than a bounce following her primary victory. A television ad campaign by Dole quickly opened a double digit lead.

Dole was elected to the Senate in 2002 to become the first female Senator in North Carolina’s history. She currently serves on three Senate committees, including the Committee on Armed Services. Attorney Hagan is currently serving her fifth term in the state’s Senate.

The incumbent is backed by 88% of Republicans and 26% of Democrats in North Carolina. Hagan’s support comes from 71% of Democrats and 7% of Republicans. Among unaffiliated voters, Dole has a 53% to 37% edge.

Women are more evenly divided than men between the two female candidates. While Dole leads 58% to 38% among men, she leads 50% to 44% among women.

Dole is viewed favorably by 61% and unfavorably by 34% of voters in North Carolina. Hagan’s numbers are 52% favorable, 34% unfavorable. While Hagan’s favorability rating jumped from 45% last month, Dole’s slipped one point.

Rasmussen Markets data gives Dole a % chance of winning re-election in November. These results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants. It costs nothing to join , so add your voice to the collective wisdom.

Dole’s numbers in North Carolina are good news for a party that is struggling in many states to maintain its seats in November. At least nine Republican Senate seats are potentially in play for Democrats including seats in Alaska, New Hampshire, Oregon, New Mexico, Colorado, Mississippi, Minnesota, Virginia, and Kentucky.

North Carolina Governor Mike Easely earns good or excellent ratings from 38% of voters, while 23% say he is doing a poor job. The gubernatorial race in the Tar Heel State is essentially even.

The state’s Presidential race is much closer than the Republicans would like in the historically red state.

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North Carolina Toss-Up

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

2002 Results

Dole (R)

46%

45%

54%

Hagan (D)

52%

50%

45%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on July 15, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


North Carolina Trends: Dole vs. Hagan

Date

Dole

Hagan

10/29/2008

46%

52%

10/08/2008

44%

49%

09/23/2008

45%

48%

09/18/2008

45%

51%

07/17/2008

53%

41%

06/10/2008

53%

39%

05/08/2008

47%

48%

04/10/2008

52%

39%


Favorable Ratings for Senate Candidates in North Carolina

 

Dole

Hagan

Very Favorable

23%

27%

Somewhat Favorable

23%

26%

Somewhat Unfavorable

19%

19%

Very Unfavorable

31%

23%

Not Sure

3%

5%


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.