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New Mexico Senate: Udall Still Safely Ahead

Democratic Congressman Tom Udall is maintaining his huge lead over Republican Steve Pearce in New Mexico’s U.S. Senate race. The Democrat now leads 59% to 34%. When “leaners” are included, Udall is on top 61% to 35%.

This marks the fourth straight time Udall has topped his rival by double-digits. Last month, the Democrat was ahead 58% to 30%. In May, he led 53% to 37%.

Udall and Pearce are seeking to replace retiring Republican Senator Pete Domenici, a Republican who has been in the Senate since 1973. Both candidates chose to leave the U.S. House of Representatives to compete for the open seat.

This month, Udall has a 59% to 27% advantage among voters not affiliated with either major political party, up from a 19-percentage-point lead last month. He is also backed by 18% of Republican voters, which is down from the 26% support he enjoyed last month.

Among men, Udall leads 54% to 42%. His lead among men has dropped 10 points since the last survey. However, his lead among women has jumped four percentage points to a 64% to 26% edge.

Rasmussen Markets data now shows that Udall is currently given a % chance of winning the New Mexico Senate race. Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the Rasmussen Markets harness competitive passions to provide a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

Favorability ratings for both candidates have changed little over the past month. The Democrat is viewed favorably by 66% and unfavorably by 28%. Pearce’s numbers are 46% favorable, 48% unfavorable.

New Mexico is one of several states where Democrats hope to pick up Senate seats in 2008. Polls show that at least seven other Republican Senate seats could be in play during Election 2008 including Oregon, New Hampshire, Colorado, Mississippi, Alaska, Minnesota, Kentucky, and Virginia.

New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson earns good or excellent reviews from 51% of voters, up from 47% last month. Twenty-one percent (21%) of voters say he is doing a poor job as governor, down from 24% in June.

In New Mexico’s presidential race, Barack Obama has a five-point lead over John McCain.

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New Mexico Safe Democratic

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

2002 Results

Pearce (R)

41%

40%

65%

Udall (D)

56%

56%

35%

This telephone survey of 700 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports July 24, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology


New Mexico Trends: Udall vs. Pearce

Date

Udall

Pearce

10/28/2008

56%

41%

10/13/2008

57%

37%

10/01/2008

55%

41%

09/08/2008

51%

44%

08/20/2008

51%

41%

07/24/2008

59%

34%

06/18/2008

58%

30%

05/14/2008

53%

37%

04/08/2008

54%

40%


Favorable Ratings for Senate Candidates in New Mexico

 

Pearce

Udall

Very Favorable

27%

38%

Somewhat Favorable

22%

20%

Somewhat Unfavorable

20%

16%

Very Unfavorable

27%

24%

Not Sure

4%

3%


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.