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New Mexico Senate: Udall Continues to Enjoy Big Lead Over GOP Challengers

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in New Mexico shows that Democratic Congressman Tom Udall continues to enjoy wide leads over potential Republican opponents in the race for the state’s open U.S. Senate seat.

Udall now leads Republicans Steve Pearce 53% to 37% and Heather Wilson 57% to 36%. Against both opponents, those figures reflect a very slight improvement compared to a month ago. In February, Udall was ahead by more modest margins.

Both Republican candidates are competitive among men but lose by roughly a two-to-one margin among women. Udall leads both Republicans among all age groups and holds a double digit lead over both among unaffiliated voters.

The candidates are seeking to replace retiring Republican Senator Pete Domenici.

New Mexico is one of several states where Democrats hope to pick up Senate seats in 2008. Earlier polls show that at least nine other Republican Senate seats could be in play during Election 2008 including North Carolina, Oregon, New Hampshire, Colorado, Alaska, Minnesota, Kentucky, Virginia, and Texas. Republican incumbents in Maine and Kansas are a bit better off than many of their colleagues. Both Susan Collins and Pat Roberts are modestly over the 50% level of support in their re-election bids.

In New Mexico, Udall is now viewed favorably by 62% and unfavorably by just 31%. Wilson’s numbers are 44% favorable, 50% unfavorable. Pearce is viewed favorably by 43% and unfavorably by 46%.

In the state’s presidential election, Barack Obama leads John McCain.

Rasmussen Markets data now shows that Udall is currently given a % chance of winning the New Mexico Senate race. Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the Rasmussen Markets harness competitive passions to provide a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

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New Mexico Safe Democratic

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

2002 Results

Pearce (R)

41%

40%

65%

Udall (D)

56%

56%

35%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports May 14, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology


New Mexico Trends: Udall vs. Pearce

Date

Udall

Pearce

10/28/2008

56%

41%

10/13/2008

57%

37%

10/01/2008

55%

41%

09/08/2008

51%

44%

08/20/2008

51%

41%

07/24/2008

59%

34%

06/18/2008

58%

30%

05/14/2008

53%

37%

04/08/2008

54%

40%

New Mexico Trends: Udall vs. Wilson

Date

Udall

Wilson

05/14/2008

57%

36%

04/08/2008

56%

36%

Favorable Ratings for Senate Candidates in New Mexico

 

Pearce

Udall

Very Favorable

27%

38%

Somewhat Favorable

22%

20%

Somewhat Unfavorable

20%

16%

Very Unfavorable

27%

24%

Not Sure

4%

3%


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.