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New Mexico Senate: Democrat Udall's Lead Jumps After GOP Primary

Democratic Congressman Tom Udall has nearly doubled his lead over Republican Steve Pearce in New Mexico’s U.S. Senate race. Udall now leads 58% to 30%, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state.

These are the first numbers to be released since Rep. Pearce defeated Rep. Heather Wilson in the Republican primary. In May, Udall had a sixteen-point lead over Pearce.

Udall and Pearce are seeking to replace retiring Republican Senator Pete Domenici, a Republican who has been in the Senate since 1973. Both candidates chose to leave the U.S. House of Representatives to compete for the open seat.

Udall has huge leads among both men and women, attracting support from 52% of male voters and 64% of females. Pearce gets 30% of the vote from both men and women.

Udall draws support from 86% of Democrats and from over a quarter (26%) of Republicans. Pearce wins just 69% of Republican votes. When it comes to voters not affiliated with either party, Udall has a commanding 46% to 27% lead, a major improvement from the ten-point lead he had last month.

Rasmussen Markets data now shows that Udall is currently given a % chance of winning the New Mexico Senate race. Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the Rasmussen Markets harness competitive passions to provide a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

New Mexico is one of several states where Democrats hope to pick up Senate seats in 2008. Earlier polls show that at least seven other Republican Senate seats could be in play during Election 2008 including Oregon, New Hampshire, Colorado, Alaska, Minnesota, Kentucky, and Virginia. Only two Democrats appear potentially vulnerable, giving Republicans at least a slight ray of hope in Louisiana and New Jersey.

In New Mexico’s Presidential race, Barack Obama is leading John McCain.

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New Mexico Safe Democratic

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

2002 Results

Pearce (R)

41%

40%

65%

Udall (D)

56%

56%

35%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports June 18, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology


New Mexico Trends: Udall vs. Pearce

Date

Udall

Pearce

10/28/2008

56%

41%

10/13/2008

57%

37%

10/01/2008

55%

41%

09/08/2008

51%

44%

08/20/2008

51%

41%

07/24/2008

59%

34%

06/18/2008

58%

30%

05/14/2008

53%

37%

04/08/2008

54%

40%


Favorable Ratings for Senate Candidates in New Mexico

 

Pearce

Udall

Very Favorable

27%

38%

Somewhat Favorable

22%

20%

Somewhat Unfavorable

20%

16%

Very Unfavorable

27%

24%

Not Sure

4%

3%


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.