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Election 2008: New Jersey Senate
Lautenberg 51%, Zimmer 37% in New Jersey Senate Race

Democratic Senator Frank Lautenberg has doubled his lead over Republican challenger Dick Zimmer to 14 points in his bid for reelection in New Jersey, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state.

In a survey released September 19, the incumbent, who is seeking a fifth term in the Senate, led 49% to 42%. At the beginning of that month, he led by 18. The race was tied in June.

Nationally Republicans from John McCain down have suffered in polls over the past month due to increasing worries over the U.S. economy.

The new numbers are especially critical for Lautenberg since incumbents who poll below 50% are generally considered vulnerable, and as of last month he was the only Democratic senator in that category.

By contrast, Republican Senate seats are at risk in Alaska, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Oregon, New Mexico, Colorado, Mississippi, Minnesota and Virginia.

Eighty-two percent (82%) of New Jersey Democrats and seven percent (7%) of Republicans support Lautenberg. Zimmer is backed by 90% of GOP voters and eight percent (8%) of Democrats.

Zimmer has a four-point lead among men, but Lautenberg leads among women by 28 points.

The Democrat is viewed favorably by 44% and unfavorably by nearly the same number (43%). The GOP challenger is regarded favorably by 42%, unfavorably by 39%. Nearly one-out-of-five voters (19%) are not sure what they think of Zimmer, even though he has served in Congress and the state legislature and ran unsuccessfully for the Senate in 1996

No Republican has won a statewide election in New Jersey since 1997.

Rasmussen Markets data now gives Lautenberg a % chance of being reelected next month. These expectations are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market .

Barack Obama continues to lead John McCain in the Garden State.

New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine’s ratings have worsened since last month. Just 25% of New Jersey voters now say he is doing a good or excellent job, while 37% rate his performance as poor.

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New Jersey Likely Democratic

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

2002 Results

Zimmer (R)

37%

37%

44%

Lautenberg (D)

51%

50%

54%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on October 7, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


New Jersey Trends: Zimmer vs. Lautenberg

Date

Zimmer

Lautenberg

10/07/2008

37%

51%

09/16/2008

42%

49%

08/04/2008

33%

51%

07/07/2008

36%

49%

06/04/2008

44%

45%


Favorable Ratings for Senate Candidates in New Jersey

 

Lautenberg

Zimmer

Very Favorable

12%

8%

Somewhat Favorable

32%

34%

Somewhat Unfavorable

17%

26%

Very Unfavorable

26%

13%

Not Sure

12%

19%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.