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New Hampshire: Shaheen Doubles Lead over Incumbent Sununu

Former New Hampshire Governor Jeanne Shaheen regained some lost ground and moved further ahead of incumbent Senator John Sununu in New Hampshire’s United States Senate race. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the states finds Shaheen up 51% to 40% which is enough to qualify Sununu as the most endangered incumbent of Election 2008.

When “leaners” are included, it’s Shaheen 52%, Sununu 43%. Full demographic crosstabs are available for Premium Members. Time is running out to save on Premium Memberships. Sign up now and save. Learn More.

For most of Election 2008, Shaheen has enjoyed a lead in the seven or eight percentage point range. Sununu pulled to within five points in July, while Shaheen enjoyed her biggest lead in June.

Shaheen leads 56% to 31% among unaffiliated voters who make up nearly half the electorate in the Granite State. She also leads by nineteen percentage points among women and four among men.

Shaheen was elected the first woman governor of New Hampshire, and served from 1997 to 2003. She is viewed favorably by 55% of voters in New Hampshire, while 39% view her unfavorably.

Sununu, the youngest member of the Senate who is seeking his second term, is viewed favorably by 49% and unfavorably by 44%.

Any incumbent who polls below 50% is considered vulnerable. Sununu has not even managed to attract more than 45% support in any of the eight Rasmussen Reports polls conducted this season. However, New Hampshire is far from the only Republican seat at risk this season. Democrats have their eyes on potential opportunities in Alaska, Oregon, New Mexico, Colorado, Mississippi, Minnesota and Virginia. The only good news for the GOP is that there are fewer opportunities for Democrats today than there were a month ago.

Louisiana Senator Mary Landrieu was seen as the most vulnerable Democrat in this cycle, but she has opened up a significant lead in her bid for re-election.

Rasmussen Markets data suggests that Shaheen has a % chance of winning New Hampshire’s Senate race in November. These results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom.

New Hampshire Governor John Lynch earns good or excellent reviews from 54% of voters, while 12% say he is doing a poor job.

The presidential race in New Hampshire remains competitive in one of the few states to switch their Electoral Votes between 2000 and 2004.

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New Hampshire Leans Democratic

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

2002 Results

Sununu (R)

44%

44%

51%

Shaheen (D)

51%

51%

47%

This telephone survey of 700 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports August 19, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology


New Hampshire Trends: Sununu vs. Shaheen

Date

Sununu

Shaheen

10/30/2008

44%

52%

10/23/2008

46%

52%

10/01/2008

45%

50%

09/23/2008

52%

45%

08/19/2008

40%

51%

07/23/2008

45%

50%

06/18/2008

39%

53%

05/20/2008

43%

50%

04/30/2008

43%

51%

03/16/2008

41%

49%

02/13/2008

41%

49%

09/18/2007

43%

48%

Favorable Ratings for Senate Candidates in New Hampshire

 

Sununu

Shaheen

Very Favorable

27%

24%

Somewhat Favorable

24%

31%

Somewhat Unfavorable

26%

15%

Very Unfavorable

20%

28%

Not Sure

2%

2%


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.