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New Hampshire Senate: Shaheen 51% Sununu 43%

For the third straight month, Democrat Jeanne Shaheen leads Senator John Sununu by eight percentage points in his bid for re-election.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of New Hampshire voters shows Shaheen attracting 51% of the vote while Sununu earns 43%. A month ago, Shaheen led 49% to 41%.

Any incumbent who is polling below 50% is considered potentially vulnerable. Sununu, facing a serious challenge from a former Governor of the state, is more vulnerable than most. Still, the Republicans have a number of large number of vulnerable incumbents at risk in Election 2008. Other attractive take-over possibilities include Virginia, New Mexico, Alaska, Minnesota, and Colorado.

In New Hampshire, the Senate candidates are even among men but Shaheen has a sixteen point advantage among women. The two candidates are even among seniors, but Shaheen leads among those under 65. does very well among female voters, leading Sununu 51% to 36%. Men are evenly divided between both candidates. Shaheen also leads Sununu among unaffiliated voters 49% to 36%.

Sununu is viewed favorably by 49% of New Hampshire voters and unfavorably by 44%. Shaheen earns positive reviews 56% and negative feedback from 41%.

When it comes to how people will vote in the upcoming presidential election, the economy is the most important issue for half (50%) of New Hampshire voters. The War in Iraq comes in a distant second with 17% of voters who think that is the top issue.

In the New Hampshire presidential election, John McCain now leads both democratic candidates.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Shaheen is heavily favored to win the New Hampshire Senate race (current prices: Democrat %; Republican %) Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the Rasmussen Markets harness competitive passions to provide a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

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New Hampshire Leans Democratic

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

2002 Results

Sununu (R)

44%

44%

51%

Shaheen (D)

51%

51%

47%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports April 30, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology


New Hampshire Trends: Sununu vs. Shaheen

Date

Sununu

Shaheen

10/30/2008

44%

52%

10/23/2008

46%

52%

10/01/2008

45%

50%

09/23/2008

52%

45%

08/19/2008

40%

51%

07/23/2008

45%

50%

06/18/2008

39%

53%

05/20/2008

43%

50%

04/30/2008

43%

51%

03/16/2008

41%

49%

02/13/2008

41%

49%

09/18/2007

43%

48%

Favorable Ratings for Senate Candidates in New Hampshire

 

Sununu

Shaheen

Very Favorable

27%

24%

Somewhat Favorable

24%

31%

Somewhat Unfavorable

26%

15%

Very Unfavorable

20%

28%

Not Sure

2%

2%


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdgeâ„¢ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.