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New Hampshire Senate: Incumbent Sununu (R) in Deeper Trouble

Democrat Jeanne Shaheen has expanded her lead over incumbent John Sununu in New Hampshire’s U.S. Senate race. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state found Shaheen ahead 53% to 39%.

Prior to opening this fourteen-point lead, Shaheen has led the incumbent by seven or eight percentage points in each of the last four monthly polls. Last month, the Democrat led Sununu 50% to 43%.

Any incumbent who polls below 50% is considered vulnerable. Sununu has not polled over 50% since tracking began and is in a worse position than other Republicans up for re-election. However, New Hampshire is far from the only Republican seat at risk in Election 2008. At least eight other Republican seats are potentially in play this fall, including Alaska, Oregon, New Mexico, Colorado, Mississippi, Kansas, Virginia and Kentucky. So far, just two Democratic incumbents are polling below 50%--Mary Landrieu in Louisiana and Frank Lautenberg in New Jersey.

This month, Shaheen has a twenty-five point lead among women and a five point lead among men in New Hampshire. She earns support from 84% of Democrats and 11% of Republican voters. Sununu’s support comes from 85% of Republicans and just 8% of Democrats. Among the Granite State’s large number of unaffiliated voters, Shaheen leads the incumbent 59% to 31%. Those numbers mark an improvement for the Democrat from last month, when she led 51% to 37% among unaffiliated voters.

Sununu is backed by 77% of conservative New Hampshire voters, 38% of Moderate voters, and just 6% of Liberal voters. Shaheen’s breakdown is 16% Conservative, 55% Moderate, and 85% Liberal.

Shaheen is viewed favorably by 59% of the state’s voters, Sununu by 48%.

New Hampshire Governor John Lynch (D) earns good or excellent ratings from 57% of voters. Just 11% rate his performance as poor.

In the Presidential race in New Hampshire, Barack Obama leads John McCain.

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New Hampshire Leans Democratic

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

2002 Results

Sununu (R)

44%

44%

51%

Shaheen (D)

51%

51%

47%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports June 18, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology


New Hampshire Trends: Sununu vs. Shaheen

Date

Sununu

Shaheen

10/30/2008

44%

52%

10/23/2008

46%

52%

10/01/2008

45%

50%

09/23/2008

52%

45%

08/19/2008

40%

51%

07/23/2008

45%

50%

06/18/2008

39%

53%

05/20/2008

43%

50%

04/30/2008

43%

51%

03/16/2008

41%

49%

02/13/2008

41%

49%

09/18/2007

43%

48%

Favorable Ratings for Senate Candidates in New Hampshire

 

Sununu

Shaheen

Very Favorable

27%

24%

Somewhat Favorable

24%

31%

Somewhat Unfavorable

26%

15%

Very Unfavorable

20%

28%

Not Sure

2%

2%


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.