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Election 2008: Mississippi Senate Special
Wicker Jumps to 11-Point Lead in Mississippi

Republican Roger Wicker, appointed to the Senate last year when Trent Lott resigned, has opened an 11-point lead over Democratic challenger Ronnie Musgrove in Mississippi.

The latest Rasmussen Reports poll of the state finds Wicker leading his opponent 54% to 43% in the state's special Senate race.

At the end of September, Wicker slipped to a two-point advantage over Musgrove. The race was also tight in May and June, but Wicker had begun pulling away over the summer. In August he led 47% to 42%.

Mississippi is in the unusual position of having two U.S. Senate races this year due to Lott’s retirement. In December, Governor Haley Barbour named Wicker to Lott’s seat until a special election could be held. In the other Mississippi Senate race, longtime Republican incumbent Thad Cochran enjoys a sizable lead.

Wicker has opened a huge 66% to 19% lead among unaffiliated voters in Mississippi, compared to the 52% to 40% lead he held in September. While the Republican still holds a double-digit lead among men in the state, women have shifted from supporting Musgrove to Wicker's column. Last month, women supported the challenger 54% to 42%; the latest poll show women favoring Wicker 50% to 47%. White voters support Wicker by a 78% to 18% margin, while black voters favor Musgrove, 87% to 12%.

Wicker, a congressman for 12 years, is viewed favorably by 59% of the state’s voters, unfavorably by 36%. Musgrove, a former governor, has 47% favorables and 50% unfavorables. While Wicker’s ratings are identical to the last poll’s, Musgrove’s have grown slightly more negative.

Rasmussen Markets data gives Wicker a % chance of reelection in November. This figure is updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

Though it now looks like Wicker may be safer in keeping his job next week, many other Republican seats are in danger, including ones in Alaska, New Hampshire, Oregon, New Mexico, Colorado, Georgia, Mississippi, Minnesota, North Carolina and Virginia. Demographic crosstabs for all state polling are available for Premium Members . Learn More.

Barbour,a Republican, receives good or excellent ratings from 48% of Mississippi voters, down from 50% last month. His job performance earns poor ratings from 20% of voters.

Rasmussen also released the latest numbers on the presidential race in Mississippi, which found John McCain leading Barack Obama by eight percentage points.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.

Mississippi Leans Republican

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

2006 Results

Wicker (R)

54%

50%

64%

Musgrove (D)

43%

44%

35%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports October 27, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Mississippi Trends: Wicker vs. Musgrove

Date

Wicker

Musgrove

10/27/2008

54%

43%

9/30/2008

49%

47%

8/21/2008

47%

42%

7/28/2008

48%

42%

6/24/2008

48%

47%

5/27/2008

46%

47%


Favorable Ratings for Senate Candidates in Mississippi

 

Wicker

Musgrove

Very Favorable

29%

25%

Somewhat Favorable

30%

22%

Somewhat Unfavorable

17%

18%

Very Unfavorable

19%

32%

Not Sure

4%

4%


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.