Friday, June 13, 2008

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The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Minnesota shows Senator Norm Coleman (R) attracting 47% of the vote while challenger Al Franken earns 45% support.

A month ago, Coleman was ahead 50% to 43%. Rasmussen Reports has polled this race five times and Coleman has had at least a modest edge four times (including the last three). However, the Senator has reached the 50% level of support just once in those five polls. Any incumbent who polls below 50% is generally considered vulnerable. Rasmussen Markets data gives Coleman a % chance of keeping his job. These figures are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants.

Coleman earns 91% support from Republican voters while Franken gets the vote from 76% of Democrats. Those figures are little changed from a month ago. However, Coleman’s lead among unaffiliated voters—down to nine percentage points—has been cut in half over the past month. Franken benefits from the fact that there are more Democrats than Republicans in Minnesota.

Franken also receives a boost from the top-of-the-ticket—Barack Obama enjoys a double-digit lead over John McCain. However, just 70% of Obama voters say they’ll vote for Franken. Eighty-four percent (84%) of McCain voters support the Republican incumbent.

Coleman is viewed favorably by 49% of Minnesota voters, down six points from a month ago. An equal percentage—49%--voice an unfavorable opinion of their Senator.

Franken earns positive ratings from 47%, down a point since April. Like Coleman, Franken is viewed unfavorably by 49% of all voters.

However, negative opinions about Franken are stronger than those about Coleman. Thirty-one percent (31%) have a Very Unfavorable opinion of the Democratic candidate. Just 23% say the same about Coleman.

At the other end of the spectrum, 20% have a Very Favorable opinion of Coleman, just 17% hold such a high opinion of Franken.

Six years ago, Coleman was elected to the Senate with just under 50% of the vote statewide. Walter Mondale picked up 47% of the vote. Mondale replaced Senator Paul Wellstone on the ballot following Wellstone’s death in a plane crash shortly before the election.

Ten years ago, he came in second in a three way race for Governor, losing to Independent Jesse Ventura, 37% to 34%.

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