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Minnesota Senate: Coleman (R) 47% Franken (D) 45%

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Minnesota shows Senator Norm Coleman (R) attracting 47% of the vote while challenger Al Franken earns 45% support.

A month ago, Coleman was ahead 50% to 43%. Rasmussen Reports has polled this race five times and Coleman has had at least a modest edge four times (including the last three). However, the Senator has reached the 50% level of support just once in those five polls. Any incumbent who polls below 50% is generally considered vulnerable. Rasmussen Markets data gives Coleman a % chance of keeping his job. These figures are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants.

Coleman earns 91% support from Republican voters while Franken gets the vote from 76% of Democrats. Those figures are little changed from a month ago. However, Coleman’s lead among unaffiliated voters—down to nine percentage points—has been cut in half over the past month. Franken benefits from the fact that there are more Democrats than Republicans in Minnesota.

Franken also receives a boost from the top-of-the-ticket—Barack Obama enjoys a double-digit lead over John McCain. However, just 70% of Obama voters say they’ll vote for Franken. Eighty-four percent (84%) of McCain voters support the Republican incumbent.

Coleman is viewed favorably by 49% of Minnesota voters, down six points from a month ago. An equal percentage—49%--voice an unfavorable opinion of their Senator.

Franken earns positive ratings from 47%, down a point since April. Like Coleman, Franken is viewed unfavorably by 49% of all voters.

However, negative opinions about Franken are stronger than those about Coleman. Thirty-one percent (31%) have a Very Unfavorable opinion of the Democratic candidate. Just 23% say the same about Coleman.

At the other end of the spectrum, 20% have a Very Favorable opinion of Coleman, just 17% hold such a high opinion of Franken.

Coleman has long been considered one of the more vulnerable incumbent senators up for re-election in 2008. However, recent polling shows him in better shape than several of his Republican colleagues. In addition to Minnesota, at least nine other Republican Senate seats are potentially in play including seats in Kentucky, Alaska, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Oregon, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, and Texas. Not all of those race will be won by Democrats, but the fact that so many Republican seats are vulnerable virtually assures that the Democratic Senate majority will grow. The underlying reason that so many Republican seats are at risk is that fewer and fewer Americans consider themselves to be Republicans.

Six years ago, Coleman was elected to the Senate with just under 50% of the vote statewide. Walter Mondale picked up 47% of the vote. Mondale replaced Senator Paul Wellstone on the ballot following Wellstone’s death in a plane crash shortly before the election.

Ten years ago, he came in second in a three way race for Governor, losing to Independent Jesse Ventura, 37% to 34%.

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Toss-Up

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

2002 Results

Coleman

43%

39%

50%

Franken

39%

41%

47%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports May 22, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology


Minnesota Trends: Coleman vs. Franken

Date

Coleman

Franken

10/28/2008

43%

39%

10/22/2008

37%

41%

10/09/2008

37%

43%

09/18/2008

48%

47%

08/13/2008

45%

45%

07/22/2008

44%

43%

07/10/2008

42%

44%

06/11/2008

48%

45%

05/22/2008

47%

45%

04/22/2008

50%

43%

03/19/2008

48%

46%

02/16/2008

46%

49%

Favorable Ratings For Senate Candidates in Minnesota

 

Coleman

Franken

Very Favorable

24%

18%

Somewhat Favorable

27%

29%

Somewhat Unfavorable

26%

13%

Very Unfavorable

22%

38%

Not Sure

1%

2%


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.