Republican incumbent Norm Coleman has inched ahead of Al Franken in Minnesota’s hotly contested U.S. Senate race, with the introduction of a third-party candidate having virtually no impact on the contest so far.
Coleman, who is seeking a second term in the Senate, is ahead of Franken, a TV comedy writer and longtime Democratic activist, by a statistically insignificant one percentage point, 48% to 47%, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state.
Last month Coleman and Franken were tied at 45% each.
Coleman has been under the 50% level of support in eight-out-of-nine polls conducted this year, always a sign an incumbent is potentially vulnerable. He was first elected to the Senate six years ago, with just under 50% of the vote.
The new survey was conducted prior to reports that Franken had taken time from his campaign to co-write a skit belittling Republican presidential candidate John McCain for this past weekend’s Saturday Night Live.
Independent candidate Dean Barkley registered three percent (3%) of the vote. This is the first survey of state voters that includes Barkley, the founder of the Minnesota Independence Party, who entered the race in July. In 1998, his party’s nominee, former pro wrestler Jesse Ventura, defeated Coleman and a Democratic candidate for governor of Minnesota. Barkely entered the Senate race after Ventura decided not to.
Coleman and Franken have nearly identical favorables and unfavorables, both in the 50% range. Barkley is seen at least somewhat favorably by 39% and at least somewhat unfavorably by 34%.
Both major party candidates have the support of nine-out-of-10 members of their respective parties. Coleman leads among unaffiliated voters 46% to 42%. Six percent (6%) of unaffiliateds support Barkley.
Fifty percent (50%) of Minnesota voters say Governor Tim Pawlenty, a finalist for the Republican vice presidential slot, is doing a good or excellent job. Twenty-one percent (21%) rate his performance as poor.
This survey was conducted in partnership with Fox Television Stations Inc.
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This telephone survey of 700 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports September 18, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
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Minnesota Trends: Coleman vs. Franken |
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|---|---|---|
|
Date |
Coleman |
Franken |
|
10/28/2008 |
43% |
39% |
|
37% |
41% |
|
|
37% |
43% |
|
|
48% |
47% |
|
|
45% |
45% |
|
|
44% |
43% |
|
|
42% |
44% |
|
|
48% |
45% |
|
|
47% |
45% |
|
|
50% |
43% |
|
|
48% |
46% |
|
|
46% |
49% |
|
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Favorable Ratings For Senate Candidates in Minnesota |
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|---|---|---|
|
Coleman |
Franken |
|
|
Very Favorable |
24% |
18% |
|
Somewhat Favorable |
27% |
29% |
|
Somewhat Unfavorable |
26% |
13% |
|
Very Unfavorable |
22% |
38% |
|
Not Sure |
1% |
2% |
Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
