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Collins Leads 53% to 43% in Maine Senate Race

With one month to go, incumbent Senator Susan Collins has a 10-point lead on her Democratic challenger Tom Allen in Maine, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state.

Collins, a Republican seeking a third six-year term, is ahead 53% to 43%, down from a 13-point lead a month ago and 15 points in August. It was a seven-point race in June and July.

Across the country, many Republican candidates seem to be suffering from growing voter fears about the economy. Nationally, Barack Obama has opened a steady lead over John McCain in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

In Maine, Obama leads McCain 51% to 46%, nearly identical to the findings in mid-September.

While Collins remains above the critical 50% line for incumbents, Republican Senate seats are at risk in Alaska, New Hampshire, Oregon, New Mexico, Colorado, Mississippi, Minnesota, North Carolina and Virginia.

Collins has the support of 94% of Maine Republicans and 20% of Democrats. Allen, presently a congressman from Maine, is backed by 80% of Democratic voters and three percent (3%) of Republicans. Unaffiliated voters prefer Collins 55% to 37%.

Men give Collins a 13-point lead over Allen, and she has a seven-point edge among women voters. Collins has lost ground among men but gained among women.

The incumbent is viewed favorably by 67% and unfavorably by 33%. Fifty-two percent (52%) have a favorable opinion of Allen, while 45% regard him unfavorably. Collins’ numbers are virtually unchanged, but Allen’s unfavorables have risen by five.

Rasmussen Markets data gives Collins a % chance of being reelected in November. These results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants. It costs nothing to join, so add your voice to the collective wisdom.Maine’s Democratic governor, John Baldacci, is given good or excellent marks for job performance by 27%, but 41% rate his performance poor. This is a shift of five points into the poor column from a month ago.

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Maine Safe Republican

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

2002 Results

Collins (R)

57%

55%

59%

Allen (D)

41%

42%

41%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on October 2, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology


Maine Trends: Collins (R) vs. Allen (D)

Date

Collins

Allen

11/01/2008

57%

41%

10/02/2008

53%

43%

09/17/2008

55%

42%

08/12/2008

53%

38%

07/17/2008

49%

42%

06/16/2008

49%

42%

05/14/2008

52%

42%

04/01/2008

54%

38%


Favorable Ratings for Senate Candidates in Maine

 

Collins

Allen

Very Favorable

29%

20%

Somewhat Favorable

40%

31%

Somewhat Unfavorable

19%

23%

Very Unfavorable

11%

23%

Not Sure

1%

3%


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.