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Lousiana Senate: Landrieu Opens 16-Point Lead in Louisiana

Senator Mary Landrieu, once viewed as the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent this election year, has opened a significant lead over Republican challenger John Kennedy in her bid for re-election.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows the Louisiana Democrat attracts 53% of the vote while the Republican hopeful earns just 37% support. A month ago, Landrieu was leading Kennedy by only five percentage points, 49% to 44%.

Since that time, Landrieu has solidified her support among Democrats while Kennedy has lost ground with Republicans. The incumbent senator attracts now attracts 84% of Democrats, up 10 percentage points from a month ago. Kennedy wins just 72% of the Republican vote, down 10 points from July.

Until late last year, Kennedy himself was a Democrat. Two weeks ago, Landrieu’s campaign launched their first attack ad of the season painting Kennedy as an office-hopping politician who previously ran for the Senate as a Democrat and supported John Kerry for president.

At the same time, Landrieu has been one of the few Democrats to openly support calls for lifting the ban on offshore oil drilling. That issue is very popular with voters nationwide and in Louisiana. Last month’s poll found that 75% of Louisiana voters favored offshore drilling.When “leaners” are included in the current polling, it’s Landrieu 56% Kennedy 39%. Landrieu is seeking her third six-year term.

While Landrieu's election vulnerability now seems a thing of the past, many Republican Senate seats are potentially in play for Democrats including seats in Alaska, New Hampshire, Oregon, New Mexico, Colorado, Mississippi, Minnesota and Virginia.

Landrieu is viewed favorably by 59% of the state’s voters, unchanged from a month ago. Kennedy earns positive reviews from 52%, down three points. Landrieu is viewed very favorably by 35% while only 18% have such positive feelings about Kennedy.

Rasmussen Markets data suggests that Landrieu has a % chance of winning re-election in November. These results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom.

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Louisiana Leans Democratic

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

2002 Results

Kennedy (R)

43%

40%

48%

Landrieu (D)

53%

53%

52%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports August 17, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology


Louisiana Trends: Kennedy vs. Landrieu

Date

Kennedy

Landrieu

10/21/2008

43%

53%

09/25/2008

41%

54%

08/14/2008

37%

53%

07/09/2008

44%

49%

05/28/2008

44%

47%


Favorable Ratings for Senate Candidates in Louisiana

 

Landrieu (D)

Kennedy (R)

Very Favorable

34%

13%

Somewhat Favorable

22%

33%

Somewhat Unfavorable

17%

28%

Very Unfavorable

25%

20%

Not Sure

2%

6%


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.