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McConnell Leads by Seven in Kentucky

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell seems to be bucking the anti-GOP trend in much of the country. In the U.S. Senate race in Kentucky, McConnell leads his Democratic opponent Bruce Lunsford by seven points.

McConnell is ahead 50% to 43% in the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state. In a survey at the beginning of the month, he had a nine-point lead.

Five percent (5%) of Kentucky voters say they are still undecided, while three percent (3%) intend to vote for some other unspecified candidate.

The Republican is seeking his fifth six-year term in the Senate. Early on, he had been viewed as one of several GOP senators who faced possible defeat. In May, following his victory in Kentucky’s Democratic primary, Lunsford was ahead by five points, but McConnell has been on top ever since.

The latest numbers from the presidential race in Kentucky will be released at 5 pm Eastern today.

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McConnell has the support of 85% of Kentucky Republicans and 23% of Democrats. Lunsford is supported by 69% of Democrats and 10% of Republicans.

Unaffiliated voters prefer the Democrat, who served as Kentucky’s Commerce secretary from 1980-1983 and ran unsuccessfully for governor in 2003 and 2007, by five points.

Men give McConnell the edge by four points, while women support the incumbent by a 10-point margin.

Seventy-one percent (71%) of African-American voters support the Democrat, while 53% of white voters prefer the Republican.

McConnell is viewed favorably by 54% and unfavorably by 42%. Forty-six percent (46%) have a favorable view of Lunsford, and 47% regard him unfavorably. This marks a slight improvement for the challenger and an equally modest falling-off for the incumbent.

Rasmussen Markets data currently gives McConnell a % chance of winning re-election in November. These results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants. It costs nothing to join, so add your voice to the collective wisdom.

McConnell’s numbers are a rare bit of good news for Republicans these days. Republican Senate seats are at risk in Alaska, New Hampshire, Oregon, New Mexico, Colorado, Mississippi, Minnesota, North Carolina, and Virginia. Demographic crosstabs for all state polling are available for Premium Members. Learn More.

Democrats are hoping, with national polls trending in Obama’s direction, that they can achieve a 60-Democrat Senate on Election Day.

Thirty-seven percent (37%) percent of Kentucky voters say the state’s Democratic governor, Steve Beshear, is doing a good or excellent job. Only 14% rate his job performance as poor.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available to Premium Members only.

Kentucky Likely Republican

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

2002 Results

McConnell (R)

51%

51%

64%

Lunsford (D)

44%

43%

36%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports October 21, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Kentucky Trends: McConnell vs. Lunsford

Date

McConnell

Lunsford

10/29/2008

51%

44%

10/21/2008

50%

43%

09/30/2008

51%

42%

07/29/2008

50%

38%

06/25/2008

48%

41%

05/22/2008

44%

49%


Favorable Ratings for Senate Candidates in Kentucky

 

McConnell

Lunsford

Very Favorable

31%

16%

Somewhat Favorable

24%

29%

Somewhat Unfavorable

20%

24%

Very Unfavorable

22%

25%

Not Sure

4%

7%

About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.