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Harkin Leads 54% to 40% in Iowa Senate Race

Iowa Senator Tom Harkin’s lead over Republican challenger Jack Reed has dropped 10 points this month, but he is still poised to handily win his bid for re-election in November.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the Hawkeye State finds Harkin ahead 54% to 40%. This is the incumbent’s smallest lead since tracking of the race began in June.

Last month, Harkin led 58% to 34%. He is currently seeking his fifth term in the Senate. In his last re-election bid, Harkin beat his Republican opponent, Greg Ganske, 54% to 44%. Reed is a Navy veteran and businessman.

This month, Harkin leads Reed 50% to 35% among unaffiliated voters in the state. He also leads 59% to 35% among women and just edges out his opponent 47% to 46% among men.

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The incumbent is viewed favorably by 61% and unfavorably by 34% of voters in Iowa. Reed’s ratings are 42% favorable, 32% unfavorable.

Rasmussen Markets data suggests that Harkin has a Democratic Party Candidate to Win Iowa Senate Race% chance of winning re-election in November. These results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants. It costs nothing to join, so add your voice to the collective wisdom.

Iowa Governor Chet Culver earns good or excellent ratings from 46% of voters. Nineteen percent (19%) say he is doing a poor job.

Barack Obama is currently leading John McCain by eight percentage points in Iowa’s presidential race.

Tonight, Fox News and Rasmussen Reports will be releasing data from five key battleground states -- Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Colorado. Additional state polling will be released every day at 5 p.m. eastern.

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Iowa Safe Democratic

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

2002 Results

Reed (R)

41%

38%

44%

Harkin (D)

57%

56%

54%

This telephone survey of 700 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on September 25, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Iowa Trends: Reed vs. Harkin

Date

Reed

Harkin

10/23/2008

41%

57%

09/25/2008

40%

54%

08/07/2008

34%

58%

07/10/2008

36%

52%

06/10/2008

37%

53%


Favorable Ratings for Senate Candidates in Iowa

 

Reed

Harkin

Very Favorable

16%

36%

Somewhat Favorable

31%

26%

Somewhat Unfavorable

21%

17%

Very Unfavorable

9%

21%

Not Sure

23%

1%


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.