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Georgia Senate: Chambliss Leads Martin by Six

Jim Martin, the Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate after defeating Vernon Jones in a run-off primary election earlier this month, is now trailing incumbent Republican Senator Saxby Chambliss by just six percentage points. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the Peach State finds the incumbent ahead of his challenger 48% to 43%.

When “leaners” are included, Chambliss leads 50% to 44%.

Though the latest numbers could represent a temporary primary “glow” for Martin, the poll marks the lowest level of support for the incumbent since tracking of this year’s election began. Last month, Chambliss had a 51% to 40% lead over the Democrat.

Chambliss has come under fire from his fellow Republicans in recent days for pushing compromise energy legislation as a member of the so-called "Gang of 10." His critics insist he is weakening the GOP push for offshore oil drilling even as it continues to resonate with voters nationwide.

Though support for the Republican has slipped a bit this year, he is far from being the most vulnerable GOP senator in this year’s round of elections. Many Republican Senate seats are potentially in play for Democrats including seats in Alaska, New Hampshire, Oregon, New Mexico, Colorado, Mississippi, Minnesota, and Virginia.

Chambliss picks up votes from 91% of Republicans and six percent of Democrats in Georgia. Martin is backed by 88% of Democrats and six percent of Republicans. Among unaffiliated voters, Chambliss has a 42% to 35% advantage. While the Republican has a dominant 54% to 38% lead among men in Georgia, Martin has a modest 46% to 43% lead among women.

The incumbent senator is viewed favorably by 57% and unfavorably by 34%. Martin’s ratings are 47% favorable, 34% unfavorable.

Rasmussen Markets data suggests that Chambliss has a % chance of winning re-election in November. These results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom.

Georgia Republican Governor Sonny Perdue earns good or excellent ratings from 47%, down slightly from 50% last month. Sixteen percent (16%) of voters give him a poor rating, down just one point from July.

The latest survey also found that most voters in Georgia (58%) think the school year starts too early, while 26% disagree. Most Georgia schools have been starting classes in mid-August. Voters are more split on the issue of spanking in schools. While 46% say spanking should not be allowed in schools, 41% take the opposite view. More men (50%) than women (35%) are in favor of allowing spanking.

While nearly all voters in Georgia (89%) are at least somewhat concerned about drought conditions this season, half (48%) say they are less concerned about it than they were last year. Just six percent report not being very concerned about drought this year. Over a third (35%) report being more concerned this year than last year about the presence of a drought.

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Georgia Leans Republican

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

2002 Results

Chambliss (R)

50%

48%

53%

Martin (D)

46%

45%

46%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports August 14, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology


Georgia Trends: Chambliss vs. Martin

Date

Chambliss

Martin

11/18/2008

50%

46%

10/30/2008

48%

43%

10/22/2008

47%

45%

10/07/2008

50%

44%

09/16/2008

50%

43%

08/14/2008

48%

43%

07/17/2008

51%

40%

06/26/2008

52%

39%

06/04/2008

52%

36%

05/06/2008

54%

33%

03/20/2008

51%

33%


Favorable Ratings for Senate Candidates in Georgia

 

Chambliss

Martin

Very Favorable

29%

26%

Somewhat Favorable

29%

24%

Somewhat Unfavorable

17%

22%

Very Unfavorable

22%

25%

Not Sure

3%

4%


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.