If it's in the News, it's in our Polls. Public opinion polling since 2003.

 

Election 2008: Georgia Senate
Chambliss Ahead by Four in Georgia Run-off Race

Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss holds a four-point lead over Democratic challenger Jim Martin in Georgia’s closely-watched Senate runoff race, according to the first Rasmussen Reports survey in the state since Election Day.

Chambliss leads 50% to 46%, with the vote scheduled for December 2. Four percent (4%) are undecided. However, runoff elections typically have lower voter turnout than general elections and can be impacted in either direction by organized get-out-the-vote efforts.

In Georgia, although Chambliss defeated Martin on Election Day, with a third-party candidate in the race, he failed to capture over 50 percent of the vote. By state law, that triggered a runoff election. Rasmussen Reports final pre-election poll showed Chambliss ahead, but narrowly below 50%.

Eighty-eight percent (88%) of those are considered Likely Voters say they are certain to cast their ballots in the runoff. Of this group, 51% favor Chambliss, 46% are for Martin, and three percent (3%) remain undecided.

The Georgia Senate race could determine whether Democrats end up with a 60-seat filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. The party emerged from Election Day with 57 seats, two races too-close-to-call, and the Georgia runoff undecided. Since then, it appears that the Democrats have defeated GOP Senator Ted Stevens in Alaska, so Democrats are two seats away from the magic number of 60. Additionally, Republican incumbent Senator Norm Coleman has just over a 200-vote lead over Democrat Al Franken in Minnesota where a recount is now taking place. If Franken emerges victorious from the recount, that would give the Democrats 59 seats.

In Georgia, 52% of voters say they are less likely to vote for Martin if it means the Democrats will gain a 60-seat majority in the Senate. Thirty-eight percent (38%) say they are more likely to vote for Martin if that’s the outcome.

Interestingly, nine percent (9%) of those who plan to vote for Martin say the prospect of a 60-Democrat Senate makes them less likely to vote for him. Only 2% of Chambliss voters who say it makes them more likely to vote for Martin.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? Sign up now. If it's in the news, it's in our polls).

Critical to Martin’s fortunes is the level of black voter turnout. John McCain carried Georgia over Barack Obama on Election Day, but the presence of the first African-American major party presidential candidate brought blacks to the polls in record numbers.

In the latest Rasmussen Reports poll Chambliss has the support of 69% of white voters while 91% of black voters favor Martin. Those numbers are virtually identical to Election Day exit polling. According to the exit polls, Chambliss received 70% of white votes, while Martin captured 93% of the African-American vote.

Chambliss has a 15-point lead among male voters but trails by six points among women. Chambliss has the support of 95% of Republicans and leads by 10 among unaffiliated voters. Ninety percent (90%) of Democrats favor Martin.

Fifty-eight percent (58%) of Georgia voters have a favorable view of Chambliss, who is seeking a second six-year term in the Senate, while 39% regard him unfavorably. Martin, a former state legislator and unsuccessful candidate for lieutenant governor in 2006, is viewed favorably by 50% and unfavorably by 47%. These numbers are largely unchanged from the final Rasmussen reports survey in the state prior to Election Day.

In Georgia, 58% are opposed to a federal government bailout of the Big Three automakers, while 23% support it. Nineteen percent (19%) are undecided.

Eighty-four percent (84%) are at least somewhat concerned that the government will get too involved in the economy, including 59% who are Very concerned. Only three percent (3%) are not at all concerned.

Just 38% percent are at least somewhat confident that U.S. policymakers know what they are doing with regards to the troubled economy, while 20% are not at all confident in the nation’s leaders.

These findings are triggered in part by the belief of 43% that the $700-billion economic rescue plan proposed by the Bush administration and passed last month by Congress has been bad for the country. Thirty-one percent (31%), however, think passage of the plan was good for the country, while 26% aren’t sure.

Half of Georgia voters (50%) say Republican Governor Sonny Perdue is doing a good or excellent job, but 19% rate his performance as poor.

With just two months to go before he leaves office, President Bush is given good or excellent marks by 39%, while 41% say his job performance is poor.

Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free)… let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available to Premium Members only.

Georgia Leans Republican

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

2002 Results

Chambliss (R)

50%

48%

53%

Martin (D)

46%

45%

46%

This telephone survey of 700 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports November 18, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology


Georgia Trends: Chambliss vs. Martin

Date

Chambliss

Martin

11/18/2008

50%

46%

10/30/2008

48%

43%

10/22/2008

47%

45%

10/07/2008

50%

44%

09/16/2008

50%

43%

08/14/2008

48%

43%

07/17/2008

51%

40%

06/26/2008

52%

39%

06/04/2008

52%

36%

05/06/2008

54%

33%

03/20/2008

51%

33%


Favorable Ratings for Senate Candidates in Georgia

 

Chambliss

Martin

Very Favorable

29%

26%

Somewhat Favorable

29%

24%

Somewhat Unfavorable

17%

22%

Very Unfavorable

22%

25%

Not Sure

3%

4%


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.