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Colorado Senate: Udall (D) 47% Schaffer (R) 41%

Virtually all recent polling data for Senate races has carried a consistent theme—more bad news for the Republican Party. That’s the case in Colorado as well as Democrat Mark Udall has opened a six-point lead over Republican Bob Schaffer.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows Udall attracting 47% of the vote while Schaffer earns 41%. For Udall, that’s an improvement from a three-point lead a month ago and two months ago. It’s also the first time either candidate has enjoyed a significant lead in the race. In February, Schaffer had a statistically insignificant one point lead.

Udall and Schaffer are competing for the right to replace Republican Senator Wayne Allard.

Udall has gained ground among unaffiliated voters over the past month and now leads by twelve among them. A month ago, the candidates were even among those not affiliated with either major party. Partisan preferences have changed little during that time frame--Udall still attracts 84% of Democrats while Schaffer is supported by 78% of Republicans.

Udall is now viewed favorably by 50% of the state’s voters, up two points from a month ago. Those figures include 22% with a Very Favorable opinion and 15% with a Very Unfavorable opinion of the Democrat.

For Schaffer the numbers are heading in the opposite direction. The Republican candidate is now viewed favorably by 44%, down three from a month ago and down nine points from two months ago. Schaffer now earns Very Favorable reviews from 14% and Very Unfavorable ratings from 18%.

In addition to Colorado, at least nine other Republican Senate seats could be in play for the Democrats during Election 2008. These include Senate seats in Alaska, North Carolina, Oregon, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Colorado, Minnesota, Kentucky, Virginia, and Texas. Republican incumbents in Maine and Kansas are a bit better off than many of their colleagues. Both Susan Collins and Pat Roberts are modestly over the 50% level of support in their re-election bids.

One issue in the Colorado campaign has been a “fact-finding” trip taken by Schaffer to the Mariana Islands in 1999. The trip was paid for by a group sponsored by now-jailed lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Schaffer has defended the trip and says he has never met Abramoff. His campaign has charged that an independent group raising the issue has been funded by George Soros and other wealthy Democrats.

While the issue has been the subject of a television commercial and significant media coverage, just 37% of the state’s voters are even somewhat concerned about the relationship between Schaffer and Abramoff. That total includes 19% who are Very Concerned and 18% who are Somewhat Concerned. Among Democratic voters, 49% say they are at least somewhat concerned.

Two years ago, a relationship with Jack Abramoff played a key role in ending the Senate career of Montana’s Conrad Burns. Burns had a much tighter relationship with Abramoff and early polling showed that 65% of voters considered it a significant voting issue.

One reason for the relatively low level of concern among Colorado voters may be that voters expect lobbyists to be involved with legislators. Seventy percent (70%) say that most politicians are influenced by lobbyists. Just 12% disagree. That’s consistent with public attitudes from when the Abramoff scandal first broke. At that time, just 15% of Americans believe Abramoff did anything different than what lobbyists typically do. That survey also found that Americans trust used-car dealers more than Members of Congress.

Rasmussen Markets data now shows that Udall is given a % chance of winning in November. Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

In the race for Colorado’s Electoral College votes, . Barack Obama leads John McCain.

The survey was conducted in partnership with Fox Television Stations, Inc.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available for Premium Members only.

Colorado Toss-Up

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

2002 Results

Schaffer (R)

44%

43%

51%

Udall (D)

51%

48%

46%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports May 19, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Colorado Trends: Udall (D) vs. Schaffer (R)

Date

Udall

Schaffer

10/16/2008

51%

44%

09/23/2008

46%

44%

08/13/2008

47%

41%

07/21/2008

47%

43%

06/17/2008

49%

40%

05/19/2008

47%

41%

04/16/2008

45%

42%

03/17/2008

46%

43%

02/11/2008

43%

44%

11/28/2007

41%

42%


Favorable Ratings for Senate Candidates in Colorado

 

Udall (D)

Schaffer (R)

Very Favorable

25%

18%

Somewhat Favorable

28%

29%

Somewhat Unfavorable

18%

20%

Very Unfavorable

26%

28%

Not Sure

4%

5%


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.