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Colorado Senate: Democrat Udall’s Lead Widens for Third Straight Month

Democrat Mark Udall continues to build his lead over Republican Bob Schaffer in Colorado’s Senate race. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state found that the Democrat had a six six-point lead last month and has widened that lead to nine points today. It’s Udall 49%, Schaffer 40%.

The Democrat has steadily pulled ahead over the past three polls, gaining three percentage points in each survey conducted. Prior to those surveys, the two candidates were essentially even. See Video

Udall and Schaffer are competing for the right to replace Republican Senator Wayne Allard. This match-up means more bad news for the Republicans in the Senate, who are at risk of losing even more seats to the Democrats this fall. Other Republican seats at risk include Alaska, New Hampshire, Oregon, New Mexico, Colorado, Mississippi, Kansas, Virginia and Kentucky. So far, just two Democratic incumbents are polling below 50%--Mary Landrieu in Louisiana and Frank Lautenberg in New Jersey.

The two candidates in Colorado are essentially tied among male voters, but Udall has a sixteen-point lead among women. Udall earns support from 84% of Democrats and 12% of Republicans in the state. Those percentages haven’t changed much over the past month. Schaffer’s support comes from 84% of Republicans, representing a six-point jump from last month. He is backed by just 8% of Democrats.

Among voters not affiliated with either major political party, Udall leads 51% to 30%. Those numbers represent a considerable improvement for the Democrat since last month, when he led 45% to 33% in that demographic.

Udall’s favorability ratings have also improved this month. The Democrat is viewed favorably by 56%, up six points from last month. He is viewed unfavorably by 35%, which is unchanged. Schaffer’s numbers are 47% favorable, 45% unfavorable. Those ratings are slightly more negative than last month’s.

Governor Bill Ritter (D) earns good or excellent ratings from 45% of Colorado voters. A quarter (25%) say he is doing a poor job as governor.

In the Presidential race in Colorado, the race is neck-and-neck.

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Colorado Toss-Up

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

2002 Results

Schaffer (R)

44%

43%

51%

Udall (D)

51%

48%

46%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports June 17, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Colorado Trends: Udall (D) vs. Schaffer (R)

Date

Udall

Schaffer

10/16/2008

51%

44%

09/23/2008

46%

44%

08/13/2008

47%

41%

07/21/2008

47%

43%

06/17/2008

49%

40%

05/19/2008

47%

41%

04/16/2008

45%

42%

03/17/2008

46%

43%

02/11/2008

43%

44%

11/28/2007

41%

42%


Favorable Ratings for Senate Candidates in Colorado

 

Udall (D)

Schaffer (R)

Very Favorable

25%

18%

Somewhat Favorable

28%

29%

Somewhat Unfavorable

18%

20%

Very Unfavorable

26%

28%

Not Sure

4%

5%


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.