If it's in the News, it's in our Polls. Public opinion polling since 2003.

 

Wisconsin: Obama 45% McCain 43%

Wisconsin has been agonizingly close in recent Presidential elections and current polling data suggests it’s likely to be a very competitive state again in November 2008.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Wisconsin shows Barack Obama earning 45% of the vote while John McCain attracts support from 43%. This is the third time in four Rasmussen Reports polls that the candidates have been within two percentage points of each other. All four polls have shown the gap between the candidates smaller than the margin of error (+/- 4.5 percentage points). In two of the four polls, Obama has held the statistically insignificant lead. In the other two, McCain was on top by a statistically insignificant margin.

The latest survey was conducted two days after Barack Obama clinched the Democratic Presidential Nomination. He has enjoyed a modest bounce in national polling and currently leads McCain in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Overall, McCain is viewed favorably by 60% of Wisconsin voters and unfavorably by 37%. Obama’s ratings are 55% favorable, 43% unfavorable. For both men, those figures are a modest improvement over the past month. Nationally, perceptions of the candidates are changing rapidly. Far more people see Obama as politically liberal today than did so at the beginning of the year. More people also see McCain as politically conservative.

As has been seen in state-after-state, opinions are more firmly held about Obama than McCain. The Illinois Senator is viewed Very Favorably by 30% while 24% have a Very Unfavorable opinion of him. For McCain, the numbers are 19% Very Favorable and 20% Very Unfavorable.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Democrats are currently given a % chance of winning the Badger State’s ten Electoral College Votes this fall. John Kerry won the state for the Democrats in 2004 by 10,000 votes out of three million cast. Four years earlier, Al Gore won the state by only 5,000 votes. Immediately prior to release of this poll, Wisconsin was rated as “Leans Democratic” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.

Fifty-four percent (54%) of Wisconsin voters say it is more important to get troops home from Iraq than to win the War. Thirty-nine percent (39%) disagree and say it is more important to win the War. Those figures are very similar to the national average.

If John McCain is elected President, 48% say that the U.S. is at least somewhat likely to win the War. Just 25% say victory is likely if Barack Obama wins.

On the other hand, 64% think that an Obama victory would get the troops home from Iraq within four years. Just 38% think a President McCain would be likely to accomplish that goal.

Fourteen percent (14%) of Wisconsin voters say that the federal government today represents the will of the people. Seventy-one percent (71%) disagree. Sixty-six percent (66%) believe things have gotten so bad that the federal government has become a special interest group that looks out primarily for its own interests. These figures are all similar to the national average.

In Wisconsin, 50% believe that U.S. elections are fair to voters. That, too, matches the national mood.

George W. Bush earned 49% of the vote in Wisconsin four years ago. But, today, just 31% believe he is doing a good or an excellent job. Fifty-one percent (51%) say he is doing a poor job.

Thirty-nine percent (39%) say Democratic Governor Jim Doyle is doing a good or an excellent job. Twenty-seven percent (27%) say he is doing a poor job.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available to Premium Members only.

Wisconsin Likely Democratic

Latest RR Poll

RR P oll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

McCain (R)

44%

45%

41%

Obama (D)

51%

51%

51%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on June 5, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Wisconsin Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/23/2008

44%

51%

10/06/2008

44%

54%

09/15/2008

46%

48%

08/05/2008

43%

47%

07/08/2008

39%

50%

06/05/2008

43%

45%

05/05/2008

47%

43%

03/26/2008

48%

46%

02/21/2008

43%

44%


Favorable Ratings For Presidential Candidates in Wisconsin

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

28%

41%

Somewhat Favorable

23%

16%

Somewhat Unfavorable

21%

12%

Very Unfavorable

27%

30%

Not Sure

1%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.