The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Washington finds Obama ahead 48% to 39%. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 51% to 43%.
While Obama has a decisive 52% to 35% lead over McCain among women in Washington, the two candidates are essentially tied among men. McCain is supported by 91% of Republicans and Obama earns the vote from 83% of Democrats. Neither candidate has a significant edge over among voters not affiliated with either political party.
Obama is viewed favorably by 59% of Washington voters and unfavorably by 40%. McCain’s numbers are 55% favorable, 45% unfavorable.
Individual polls can sometimes overstate volatility in a race, especially when the results carry a four-and-a-half percentage point margin of sampling error. One way of addressing this is to look at a rolling-average of three consecutive polls. Using this approach, McCain leads Obama 51% to 38%. Last month’s three-poll average showed McCain up by twelve. The June survey was conducted shortly after Obama clinched the nomination and may have reflected a temporary bounce in his support.
Forty-nine percent (49%) of Washington voters think protecting the environment is more important than reducing gas prices. Thirty-seven percent (37%) disagree and take the opposing stance.
Rasmussen Markets shows that Democrats are currently given a % chance of winning Washington in November. With release of this poll, Washington shifts from “Safely Democratic” to “Likely Democratic” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article. Washington has cast its eleven Electoral College votes for Democratic candidates in the last six elections. In 2004, John Kerry took the state by a 53% to 46% margin.
President George W. Bush earns good or excellent ratings from 33% of Washington voters, while 57% say he is doing a poor job. Nationally, the President’s approval ratings continue to hit new lows.
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This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports July 9, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
See Methodology.
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Washington Trends: McCain vs. Obama |
||
|---|---|---|
|
Date |
McCain |
Obama |
|
10/22/2008 |
43% |
54% |
|
43% |
53% |
|
|
47% |
49% |
|
|
40% |
52% |
|
|
39% |
48% |
|
|
35% |
53% |
|
|
40% |
51% |
|
|
43% |
48% |
|
|
45% |
44% |
|
|
Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Washington |
||
|---|---|---|
|
McCain |
Obama |
|
|
Very Favorable |
28% |
45% |
|
Somewhat Favorable |
28% |
16% |
|
Somewhat Unfavorable |
19% |
14% |
|
Very Unfavorable |
24% |
24% |
|
Not Sure |
1% |
1% |
|
Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary |
|
|---|---|
|
160 |
|
|
260 |
|
|
118 |
|
Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
