The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Virginia finds John McCain leading Barack Obama by just three percentage points, 47% to 44%. That’s a significant improvement for Obama after trailing the presumptive Republican nominee by eleven points a month ago.
In Virginia, McCain leads by fifteen percentage points among men but trails by seven among women. A generation gap is found both nationally and in Virginia. In the state, Obama leads among voters under 40 but trails among their elders. McCain is supported by 81% of Republicans and Obama by 75% of Democrats. McCain has a nineteen point advantage among the state’s unaffiliated voters.
McCain leads by seventeen percentage points among Investors but most non-Investors support Obama. McCain also leads among those who attend Church or other religious services at least a couple of times a month. Obama leads among those who attend less frequently or not at all.
McCain is viewed favorably by 60% of Virginia voters, Obama by 51%.
Individual polls can sometimes overstate volatility in a race, especially when the results carry a four-and-a-half percentage point margin of sampling error. One way of addressing this is to look at a rolling-average of three consecutive polls. Using this approach, McCain leads Obama 49% to 43% in Virginia.
In the unlikely event that Hillary Clinton gets the Democratic nomination, she trails McCain by six in Virginia, 47% to 41%.
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This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on May 8, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
See Methodology.
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Virginia Trends: McCain vs. Clinton |
||
|---|---|---|
|
Date |
McCain |
Clinton |
|
05/08/2008 |
47% |
41% |
|
58% |
36% |
|
|
51% |
41% |
|
|
49% |
38% |
|
|
Virginia Trends: McCain vs. Obama |
||
|---|---|---|
|
Date |
McCain |
Obama |
|
11/02/2008 |
47% |
51% |
|
47% |
51% |
|
|
44% |
54% |
|
|
47% |
50% |
|
|
48% |
50% |
|
|
47% |
50% |
|
|
45% |
50% |
|
|
50% |
48% |
|
|
48% |
48% |
|
|
49% |
47% |
|
|
45% |
46% |
|
|
44% |
44% |
|
|
44% |
45% |
|
|
47% |
44% |
|
|
52% |
41% |
|
|
49% |
44% |
|
|
45% |
43% |
|
|
Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Virginia |
||
|---|---|---|
|
McCain |
Obama |
|
|
Very Favorable |
36% |
46% |
|
Somewhat Favorable |
21% |
9% |
|
Somewhat Unfavorable |
24% |
10% |
|
Very Unfavorable |
19% |
33% |
|
Not Sure |
1% |
1% |
|
Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary |
|
|---|---|
|
160 |
|
|
260 |
|
|
118 |
|
Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
