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Obama Still Leading in Virginia

No Democratic Presidential candidate has won the state of Virginia since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. But, Barack Obama has been ahead of John McCain in six consecutive surveys conducted by Rasmussen Reports.

The latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows Obama leading 51% to 47%.

While the size of Obama’s lead has varied from poll-to-poll, it’s worth noting that the Democratic hopeful has been at 50% or higher in six straight polls while McCain’s support has stayed in the 44% to 48% range. As in many other states, the Republican candidate was doing better in Virginia before Lehman Brothers collapsed and the Wall Street problems became visible.

Two weeks ago, Obama enjoyed a ten-point lead in Virginia, his biggest advantage all year.

Both candidates are now viewed favorably by 55% of voters and 47% say that they trust each man more than the other.

However, on the issue of the economy, 51% trust Obama more than McCain while 46% hold the opposite view. It’s no coincidence that those numbers are very similar to overall levels of support for the candidates.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).

Ninety-three percent (93%) of liberals support Obama while just 80% of conservatives plan to vote for McCain. Obama leads by fourteen points among women but trails by six among men (see full demographic crosstabs).

George W. Bush won Virginia by eight percentage points in both 2000 and 2004, but Democrats have focused on Virginia this year as a Red State they are increasingly hopeful of peeling away from Republicans. At the time this poll was released, Virginia is listed as “Leans Democratic” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

Thirty-three percent (33%) of Virginia voters say they’re most interested in a candidate who can bring about the needed change. Twenty-six percent (26%) are looking for someone who shares their values while another 20% say they want a candidate with the right experience.

Rasmussen Markets data currently gives Obama a % chance of carrying Virginia this fall.

Rasmussen Reports and Fox News Channel also have jointly released several other battleground state polls today, including numbers from Ohio, Colorado, Missouri, North Carolina and Florida. See an overview of this week’s Battleground State polls.

Rasmussen Reports earlier released new results from Arizona and California.

Electoral College projections now show Obama leading 260-163. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 286-174. A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House (Predict how many Electoral College votes Obama will win this year).

 

Recent statewide presidential polls also have been released for Arizona, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin. Demographic crosstabs for all state polling are available for Premium Members. Learn More.

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See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available for Premium Members only.

Virginia Leans Democratic

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

McCain (R)

47%

46%

45%

Obama (D)

51%

52%

49%

This telephone survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on October 26, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Virginia Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

11/02/2008

47%

51%

10/26/2008

47%

51%

10/16/2008

44%

54%

10/12/2008

47%

50%

10/05/2008

48%

50%

09/28/2008

47%

50%

09/25/2008

45%

50%

09/21/2008

50%

48%

09/14/2008

48%

48%

09/07/2008

49%

47%

08/12/2008

45%

46%

07/16/2008

44%

44%

06/12/2008

44%

45%

05/08/2008

47%

44%

03/27/2008

52%

41%

02/19/2008

49%

44%

01/03/2008

45%

43%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Virginia

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

36%

46%

Somewhat Favorable

21%

9%

Somewhat Unfavorable

24%

10%

Very Unfavorable

19%

33%

Not Sure

1%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.