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Obama’s Lead Jumps to Ten in Virginia

Barack Obama has opened his biggest lead yet over John McCain in Virginia. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds Obama now leading 54% to 44%. The Democrat leads 51% to 48% among men and 57% to 42% among women (see full demographic crosstabs).

Just one week ago, Obama held a three percentage point lead but Obama has been dramatically outspending McCain on television advertising in this critical state. The Democrat has now been ahead of McCain in five straight Virginia polls conducted by Rasmussen Reports.

Obama is viewed favorably by 59% of Virginia voters and unfavorably by 40%. McCain’s numbers are 55% favorable, 44% unfavorable.

Rasmussen Markets data currently gives Obama a % chance of carrying Virginia this fall.

Though both candidates have been criticized for negative campaigning this year, most Virginia voters (52%) think the overall tone of this election is about the same as past elections. Just 12% believe this election is more positive, while 35% say it is more negative. Only 50% believe it is possible to win an election without criticizing the opponent, while 40% disagree.

While the plurality of voters (43%) believes Obama’s campaign has been generally positive, over half (54%) say McCain’s has been generally negative.

On the top electoral issue of the economy, 46% of voters in Virginia disagrees with the economic rescue plan passed by Congress two weeks ago. Just 29% agree with the plan and only 38% believe it will help the economy. Twenty-two percent (22%) believe the government action will hurt the economy while another 27% say the $700 billion taxpayer investment will have no impact.

Forty-six percent (46%) says lowering taxes would be the best policy to spur economic growth, but half (51%) also say that raising taxes on those who make over $250,000 a year would help the economy.

Voters in Virginia are less supportive of raising the capital gains tax, with 52% who think this would hurt the economy overall.

President Bush earns good or excellent ratings from just 32% of Virginia voters, while 67% give his job performance a poor rating.

New polling on the presidential race is also being released today from Colorado , North Carolina, Florida and Missouri. See an overview of all five state polls and the latest Electoral College projections. A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House (see 50-State Summary).

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available for Premium Members only.

This telephone survey of 700 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on October 16, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Virginia Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

11/02/2008

47%

51%

47%

51%

44%

54%

47%

50%

48%

50%

47%

50%

45%

50%

50%

48%

48%

48%

49%

47%

45%

46%

44%

44%

44%

45%

47%

44%

52%

41%

49%

44%

45%

43%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Virginia

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

36%

46%

Somewhat Favorable

21%

9%

Somewhat Unfavorable

24%

10%

Very Unfavorable

19%

33%

Not Sure

1%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

160

260

118


Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.