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Texas: McCain Still Ahead by Nine

Still no change in the Texas presidential race, as John McCain continues to lead Barack Obama by nine percentage points. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds McCain ahead 52% to 43% (see crosstabs).

The latest numbers mark the fourth straight month the Republican has held a nine-point lead in the Lone Star State. The closest match-up between the nominees was back in May, when Obama trailed by just six points. Texas has voted for the Republican candidate in every election for the past 28 years. At the time this poll was released, Texas was rated as a “Safely Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.

While McCain is leading in Texas, Obama has held a five or six-point lead nationally for nearly a week in the daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

(Want a free daily e-mail update ? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).

In Texas, McCain leads 56% to 29% among unaffiliated voters. He also leads 58% to 37% among men. Women are evenly divided between the candidates, favoring McCain by a 48% to 47% margin.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Republicans are favored to win Texas' 34 Electoral College votes this November. Current prices give the GOP a % chance of winning. These figures are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants (it costs nothing to join).

McCain is viewed favorably by 63% of Texas voters and unfavorably by 37%. Obama’s ratings are 52% favorable, 46% unfavorable.

As for their running mates, who will face each other in their first debate tomorrow night, opinions are held stronger for Sarah Palin than Joe Biden. Palin is viewed favorably by 55% and unfavorably by 43%. For Biden, the numbers are 46% favorable, 48% unfavorable. However, while just 28% have a very unfavorable view of Biden, 34% say the same of Palin. Thirty-seven percent (37%) have a very favorable view of the Alaskan governor, while 25% have a very favorable opinion of the Delaware senator.

Though Hurricane Ike caused cost Texas millions in damages, 92% of voters say the economic impact of the hurricane has not affected their choice in the upcoming election. Just 5% say that it has. After both the hurricane and the national economic crisis that has plagued the state over the past month, voters say McCain is best suited to bring economic stability back to Texas by a 51% to 40% margin. Unaffiliated voters in the state choose McCain by a 51% to 32% margin.

President Bush earns good or excellent ratings from 37% of voters in his home state, while 46% say he is doing a poor job.

The survey was conducted in partnership with Fox Television Stations, Inc.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.

Texas
Likely Republican

Latest
RR Poll

RR Poll
Avg.

"538"
Avg.

RR
Mkts.

In
Trade

McCain (R)

54%

52%

54%

Obama (D)

44%

43%

41%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports September 29, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Texas Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/21/2008

54%

44%

09/29/2008

52%

43%

08/21/2008

50%

41%

07/30/2008

50%

41%

06/25/2008

48%

39%

06/02/2008

52%

39%

05/01/2008

48%

43%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Texas

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

36%

36%

Somewhat Favorable

30%

11%

Somewhat Unfavorable

16%

15%

Very Unfavorable

17%

37%

Not Sure

0%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.