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Texas: McCain Holds Modest Lead Over Obama

In Texas, John McCain has a double-digit lead over Barack Obama. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey found McCain attracting 52% of the vote while Obama earns 39%. A month ago, McCain’s lead over Obama was just five percentage points. Nationally, Obama is enjoying a bounce in the polls and currently holds a modest lead in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

McCain is supported by 87% of the Lone Star State’s Republican voters while Obama earns the vote from 75% of Democrats. Among voters not affiliated with either major political party, it’s McCain 56% and Obama 30%.

McCain is viewed favorably by 59% of Texas voters, little changed from a month ago.

Obama by 42%, down nine points over the past month.

As is the case nationwide, opinions about Obama are more firmly held. In Texas, 23% have a Very Favorable opinion of the presumptive Democratic nominee while 38% have a Very Unfavorable opinion. For McCain, the numbers are 16% Very Favorable and 17% Very Unfavorable.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Republicans are overwhelmingly favored to win the 34 Electoral College Votes from Texas this November—current prices give the GOP a % chance of winning. These figures are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants (it costs nothing to join). Texas has voted for the Republican candidate in every election for the past twenty-eight years. At the time this poll was released, Texas was rated as a “Safely Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.

Fifty-two percent (52%) of Texas voters say it’s more important to get the troops home from Iraq than to win the war. Forty-four percent (44%) disagree and say it’s more important to win the war. Those figures are reasonably close to the national average.

If John McCain is elected President, 54% of Texas voters say the U.S. is at least somewhat likely to win the War in Iraq. Just 17% say such an outcome is likely if Barack Obama is our next President.

However, 63% believe it is at least somewhat likely that a President Obama would get the troops home from Iraq during his first term. Fifty percent (50%) say that outcome is likely with a President McCain.

Eighteen percent (18%) of Texas voters say that the federal government today represents the will of the American people. Sixty-nine percent (69%) disagree. Sixty-nine percent (69%) also believe that the federal government has become a special interest group that looks out primarily for its own interests.

Fifty-three percent (53%) believe that American elections are fair to voters. That’s a few points higher than the national average.

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Texas
Likely Republican

Latest
RR Poll

RR Poll
Avg.

"538"
Avg.

RR
Mkts.

In
Trade

McCain (R)

54%

52%

54%

Obama (D)

44%

43%

41%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports June 2, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Texas

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

36%

36%

Somewhat Favorable

30%

11%

Somewhat Unfavorable

16%

15%

Very Unfavorable

17%

37%

Not Sure

0%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.