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Pennsylvania: Obama Leads By Seven

In Pennsylvania, John McCain has pulled back within single digits of Barack Obama.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state shows Obama with 53% of the vote while McCain picks up 46%. That seven-point margin is half the 13-point advantage Obama enjoyed early in October.

Not coincidentally, Obama’s current lead is matched by a seven-point advantage on the question of which candidate is trusted more on the economy.

However, while McCain has closed the gap, virtually all the movement comes from an increase in his support rather than a loss of support for Obama. This is the third straight poll showing Obama’s support at or above the 50% level.

Still, the tightening poll results help explain why the Obama campaign has been paying so much attention to the Keystone State this week. Obama and Biden are both campaigning there along with major campaign surrogates.

Obama is now viewed favorably by 56% of Pennsylvania voters, down three points from earlier in the month.

McCain’s favorability ratings have been moving in the opposite direction, up four points to 54%.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it’s in the news, it’s in our polls).

McCain now leads Obama by seven among white voters in Pennsylvania after the candidates were tied in the previous poll. But Obama still dominates among all other voters. Obama leads among women and voters under 40 while trailing among men and older voters. McCain leads among those who earn $60,000 to $100,000 a year. Obama leads among those who make less than $60,000 and more than $100,000 (full demographic crosstabs available for Premium Members). Nationally, Obama continues to hold a modest but steady lead in the Rasmussen Reports daily

Presidential Tracking Poll and in the Electoral College projections.

Rasmussen Markets data currently gives Obama a % chance of carrying Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is listed as “Likely Democratic” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings.

Governor Ed Rendell, a Democrat, is given good or excellent grades for his job performance by 46%, but 24% rate his performance as poor.

Thirty percent (30%) say President Bush is doing a good or excellent job, while 50% say his performance is poor.

Battleground state polls released yesterday showed Obama leading in Colorado, Florida, Ohio and Virginia. With these latest results, Rasmussen Reports has moved Florida from “Toss-Up” to “Leans Democratic.”

In Missouri and North Carolina, the race remains a toss-up while McCain leads by five in his home state of Arizona. Rasmussen Reports Electoral College projections now show Obama leading 260-163. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 313-174.

Today’s other releases show McCain ahead in Arkansas and Mississippi while Obama has the advantage in Nevada. Demographic crosstabs for all state polling are available for Premium Members. Learn More.

 

Recent statewide presidential polls have been released for Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Hawaii, Kentucky, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia and Washington. Demographic crosstabs for all state polling are available for Premium Members. Learn More.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.

Pennsylvania Likely Democratic

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

McCain (R)

46%

46%

42%

Obama (D)

52%

52%

51%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports October 27, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Pennsylvania Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

11/01/2008

46%

52%

10/30/2008

47%

51%

10/27/2008

46%

53%

10/06/2008

41%

54%

09/28/2008

42%

50%

09/24/2008

45%

49%

09/21/2008

45%

48%

09/14/2008

47%

47%

09/07/2008

45%

47%

08/19/2008

40%

45%

07/23/2008

42%

47%

06/22/2008

42%

46%

05/21/2008

43%

45%

04/24/2008

44%

43%

04/09/2008

39%

47%

03/10/2008

44%

43%

02/14/2008

39%

49%

01/08/2008

46%

38%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Pennsylvania

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

32%

40%

Somewhat Favorable

22%

16%

Somewhat Unfavorable

22%

11%

Very Unfavorable

23%

31%

Not Sure

1%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.