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Pennsylvania: Obama Holds Three-Point Advantage Over McCain

The race for Pennsylvania’s 21 Electoral College votes remains close, but Barack Obama is back on top.

The latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds Barack Obama attracting 48% of the vote while John McCain earns 45%. A week ago, the two men were tied at 47%. Two weeks ago, Obama was up by two points.

Obama currently is supported by 81% of Democrats and holds a double digit lead among unaffiliated voters. Ninety percent (90%) of Republicans plan to vote for McCain (demographic crosstabs available for Premium Members).

Obama is viewed favorably by 56% of the state’s voters, McCain by 53%.

When it comes to the economy and jobs, Obama is trusted more by 48% of the state’s voters, McCain by 41%.

On national security, McCain has the edge, 48% to 42%.

This week, the number of Pennsylvania voters who name the economy as the top voting issue jumped to 45% from 35% a week ago.

Rasmussen Reports and Fox News Channel will jointly release a series battleground state polls every Monday night at 6:00 p.m. Eastern. Other polls tonight were released for Michigan, Ohio, Florida, and Virginia. Premium Members can review full demographic crosstabs for all state polls and get the first look at all Rasmussen Reports polling data. Learn More.

Among the five battleground state polls released tonight, Pennsylvania has the highest level of undecided voters (5%). This alone will be enough to keep the candidates and their surrogates in Pennsylvania over the coming six weeks. See overview of all five polls.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).

Forty percent (40%) of Pennsylvania voters would be very or extremely comfortable with Obama as President. Thirty-six percent (36%) say the same about McCain. Those figures reflect a seven-point drop for McCain and little change for Obama.

Thirty-four percent (34%) say they would not be comfortable at all with Obama as President and 38% say the same about McCain.

Voters are evenly divided as to whose advice they would seek for the toughest decision of their life—45% say they’d prefer McCain and 44% choose Obama.

Rasmussen Reports releases other state polling on the Presidential race weeknights at 5:00 p.m. Eastern. The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll, follows the race on a national basis and is updated every morning at 9:30 a.m. Eastern. (Sign up for a free daily e-mail update).

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Democrats are currently given a % chance of winning Pennsylvania’s 21 Electoral College Votes this fall.

John Kerry won the state for the Democrats in 2004 by a 51% to 48% margin over President Bush. Four years earlier, Al Gore carried the state by four percentage points. Immediately prior to release of this poll, Pennsylvania was rated as “Leans Democrat” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper righthand corner of this article.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.

Pennsylvania Likely Democratic

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

McCain (R)

46%

46%

42%

Obama (D)

52%

52%

51%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports September 21, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Pennsylvania Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

11/01/2008

46%

52%

10/30/2008

47%

51%

10/27/2008

46%

53%

10/06/2008

41%

54%

09/28/2008

42%

50%

09/24/2008

45%

49%

09/21/2008

45%

48%

09/14/2008

47%

47%

09/07/2008

45%

47%

08/19/2008

40%

45%

07/23/2008

42%

47%

06/22/2008

42%

46%

05/21/2008

43%

45%

04/24/2008

44%

43%

04/09/2008

39%

47%

03/10/2008

44%

43%

02/14/2008

39%

49%

01/08/2008

46%

38%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Pennsylvania

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

32%

40%

Somewhat Favorable

22%

16%

Somewhat Unfavorable

22%

11%

Very Unfavorable

23%

31%

Not Sure

1%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.