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Obama Takes Four-Point Lead in Pennsylvania

Barack Obama now leads John McCain by four percentage points in Pennsylvania. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds Obama attracting 49% of the vote while McCain earns 45%.

A few days ago, the Democrat was up by three. A week-and-a-half ago, the two candidates were tied in the Keystone State.

Pennsylvania, with 21 Electoral College votes, is one of the few traditionally Democratic states where McCain is thought to have a chance at scoring an upset.

One percent (1%) of Pennsylvania voters plan on casting their ballot for a third-party candidate while five percent (5%) remain undecided. The latter figure includes 15% of unaffiliated voters, four percent (4%) of Democrats and one percent (1%) of Republicans.

Obama leads by eight among women while the candidates are tied among men. McCain leads among those who attend church on a regular basis while Obama leads among those who don’t.

Among voters who see the economy as the top issue of Election 2008, Obama leads by a 63% to 22% margin. Those who see national security issues as the highest priority prefer McCain, 75% to 22%.

Forty-eight percent (48%) view the economy as the top issue while 25% say national security (full demographic crosstabs available for Premium Members).

Obama is viewed favorably by 54% of the state’s voters, McCain by 53%.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).

Polling has been released this week for California, Colorado, Florida, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and West Virginia. Demographic crosstabs for all state polling data are available for Premium Members. Learn More.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Democrats are currently given a % chance of winning Pennsylvania’s 21 Electoral College Votes this fall. John Kerry won the state for the Democrats in 2004 by a 51% to 48% margin over President Bush. Four years earlier, Al Gore carried the state by four percentage points.

Immediately prior to release of this poll, Pennsylvania was rated as “Leans Democrat” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper righthand corner of this article.

Just 28% of Pennsylvania voters rate the nation’s health care system as good or excellent. However, among those who are insured, 71% rate their own coverage as good or excellent.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.

Pennsylvania Likely Democratic

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

McCain (R)

46%

46%

42%

Obama (D)

52%

52%

51%

This telephone survey of 700 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports September 24, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Pennsylvania Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

11/01/2008

46%

52%

10/30/2008

47%

51%

10/27/2008

46%

53%

10/06/2008

41%

54%

09/28/2008

42%

50%

09/24/2008

45%

49%

09/21/2008

45%

48%

09/14/2008

47%

47%

09/07/2008

45%

47%

08/19/2008

40%

45%

07/23/2008

42%

47%

06/22/2008

42%

46%

05/21/2008

43%

45%

04/24/2008

44%

43%

04/09/2008

39%

47%

03/10/2008

44%

43%

02/14/2008

39%

49%

01/08/2008

46%

38%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Pennsylvania

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

32%

40%

Somewhat Favorable

22%

16%

Somewhat Unfavorable

22%

11%

Very Unfavorable

23%

31%

Not Sure

1%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.