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Obama Takes Double-Digit Lead in Pennsylvania

Heading into the second presidential debate, the polling news is almost all good for Barack Obama, and the newest results from Pennsylvania are no exception.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state shows Obama on top by 13 percentage points, 54% to 41%. Following a trend that has been seen all across the country, Obama has gained ground in recent weeks ever since the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the growing financial turmoil on Wall Street.

Just seven percent (7%) of Pennsylvania voters rate the economy as good or excellent while 62% say poor. Only three percent (3%) say economic conditions are getting better while 82% say they are getting worse.

Forty-four percent (44%) of Keystone State voters say the economy is the most important issue of Election 2008, and 53% trust Obama more than McCain on this issue. Only 39% trust McCain more. It is no coincidence that the Obama’s advantage on economic issues nearly matches his overall lead in the state.

Sixty-four percent (64%) of voters in Pennsylvania are investors who have been directly impacted by tumbling stock prices.

In mid-September, just before the financial news shook the nation’s confidence, the race for the White House was tied in Pennsylvania. Obama has gained ground in each poll conducted since that date and was up by eight points a week ago.

Nationally, a similar trend is visible in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it’s in the news, it’s in our polls).

Obama is viewed favorably by 59% of voters statewide, McCain by 50%.

As for their running mates, Joseph Biden is viewed favorably by 58%, Sarah Palin by 46%.

McCain and Obama are now tied among white voters in Pennsylvania, but Obama dominates among all other voters. The candidates are tied among senior citizens, but Obama leads among younger voters (full demographic crosstabs available for Premium Members).

Rasmussen Markets data currently gives Obama a % chance of carrying Pennsylvania. With release of this poll, Pennsylvania shifts from “Leans Democrat” to “Likely Democrat” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper righthand corner of this article.

Governor Ed Rendell, a Democrat, is given good or excellent grades for his job performance by 41%, but 23% rate his performance as poor.

Twenty-five percent (25%) say President Bush is doing a good or excellent job, while 57% say his performance is poor.

New statewide poll results from Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Ohio and Virginia were released last night and confirm the national trend favoring Obama.

Recent statewide presidential polls have been released for Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Hawaii, Kentucky, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia and Washington. Demographic crosstabs for all state polling are available for Premium Members. Learn More.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.

Pennsylvania Likely Democratic

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

McCain (R)

46%

46%

42%

Obama (D)

52%

52%

51%

This telephone survey of 700 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports October 6, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Pennsylvania Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

11/01/2008

46%

52%

10/30/2008

47%

51%

10/27/2008

46%

53%

10/06/2008

41%

54%

09/28/2008

42%

50%

09/24/2008

45%

49%

09/21/2008

45%

48%

09/14/2008

47%

47%

09/07/2008

45%

47%

08/19/2008

40%

45%

07/23/2008

42%

47%

06/22/2008

42%

46%

05/21/2008

43%

45%

04/24/2008

44%

43%

04/09/2008

39%

47%

03/10/2008

44%

43%

02/14/2008

39%

49%

01/08/2008

46%

38%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Pennsylvania

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

32%

40%

Somewhat Favorable

22%

16%

Somewhat Unfavorable

22%

11%

Very Unfavorable

23%

31%

Not Sure

1%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.