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Obama Leads By Four in Pennsylvania

In Pennsylvania, John McCain is getting closer, but Barack Obama is still attracting a majority of voters.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state shows Obama with 51% of the vote while McCain picks up 47%. That four-point advantage for Obama is down from a seven-point margin earlier in the week and a 13-point advantage for Obama earlier in the month.

Just 75% of Pennsylvania Democrats now support their party’s nominee, down from 86% in the previous survey. Obama is doing a bit better among unaffiliated voters while Republican support for McCain remains steady (see crosstabs).

Democratic nominee John Kerry narrowly won Pennsylvania four years ago and both candidates have spent a lot of time here this past week. The Keystone State is the only state won by Kerry four years ago that is at all competitive in the final days of Election 2008. Although McCain is gaining in the state, this is the fourth consecutive poll to show Obama attracting more than 50% of the vote.

Nationally, Obama continues to hold a modest but steady lead in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and in the Electoral College projections.

McCain is now viewed favorably by 55% of Pennsylvania voters, Obama by 54%. Those figures reflect a five-point improvement for McCain from the beginning of the month and a five-point decline for Obama.

Still, 51% of Pennsylvania voters say they trust Obama more than McCain when it comes to the economy. Forty-six percent (46%) hold the opposite view and trust McCain more.

Forty-four percent (44%) rate economic issues as most important in this campaign. Nationally, the Rasmussen Consumer Index showed consumer and investor confidence falling to record lows in mid-October before improving slightly over the past two weeks.

Just 20% view national security issues as the highest priority in this election. McCain has a nine-point advantage when it comes to voter trust on national security issues.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it’s in the news, it’s in our polls).

Rasmussen Markets data currently gives Obama a % chance of carrying Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is listed as “Likely Democratic” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings.

Governor Ed Rendell, a Democrat, is given good or excellent grades for his job performance by 41%, but 23% rate his performance as poor.

Twenty-eight percent (28%) say President Bush is doing a good or excellent job, while 54% say his performance is poor.

Battleground state polls released Monday showed Obama leading in Colorado, Florida, Ohio and Virginia.

In Missouri and North Carolina, the race remains a toss-up while McCain leads by five in his home state of Arizona. Rasmussen Reports Electoral College projections now show Obama leading 260-160. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 313-160.

Other new polls show McCain ahead in Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Indiana, Montana and Mississippi while Obama has the advantage in New Mexico and Pennsylvania. Demographic crosstabs for all state polling are available for Premium Members. Learn More.

 

Recent statewide Presidential polls have been released for Alaska, Arkansas, Arizona, California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Kansas, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available to Premium Members only.

Pennsylvania Likely Democratic

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

McCain (R)

46%

46%

42%

Obama (D)

52%

52%

51%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports October 30, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Pennsylvania Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

11/01/2008

46%

52%

10/30/2008

47%

51%

10/27/2008

46%

53%

10/06/2008

41%

54%

09/28/2008

42%

50%

09/24/2008

45%

49%

09/21/2008

45%

48%

09/14/2008

47%

47%

09/07/2008

45%

47%

08/19/2008

40%

45%

07/23/2008

42%

47%

06/22/2008

42%

46%

05/21/2008

43%

45%

04/24/2008

44%

43%

04/09/2008

39%

47%

03/10/2008

44%

43%

02/14/2008

39%

49%

01/08/2008

46%

38%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Pennsylvania

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

32%

40%

Somewhat Favorable

22%

16%

Somewhat Unfavorable

22%

11%

Very Unfavorable

23%

31%

Not Sure

1%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.