The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows Barack Obama still holding a comfortable lead over John McCain in Oregon 46% to 38%. But, that's down from a fourteen point lead last month and similar to results from a poll conducted in March. Last month’s poll was conducted while Obama and Clinton were smothering the state in advance of the Democratic Presidential Primary.

McCain’s support remains stalled at the same level this month as in May. In fact, he has stayed between the 38% and 42% level of support in four Oregon polls conducted this year. With the exception of last month’s poll, Obama’s support has stayed in the 46% to 49% range.

The new survey, taken Wednesday night and the first since Obama clinched the Democratic nomination last week, found nine percent (9%) favoring another candidate and seven percent (7%) undecided.

Obama’s favorability rating also has fallen in the past month – from 61% in May to 55% now. Thirty-two percent (32%) rate their view of him now as Very Favorable, about the same as last month, with 28% Very Unfavorable, an increase of five percent (5%) over May.

But Oregon voters by a 2-1 margin (53% to 27%) oppose putting Mrs. Clinton on the ticket as Obama’s running mate. Twenty percent (20%) are undecided. Among Oregon Democrats, just 43% believe the former First Lady should be on the ticket while 38% disagree.

McCain’s overall favorables have dropped slightly, too, from 52% last month to 50% now. But 15% now rate their view of him as Very Favorable (up 3 points from May) and 18% Very Unfavorable (down 3 points).

Individual polls can sometimes overstate volatility in a race, especial when the results have a four-and-a-half percentage point margin of sampling error. One way of addressing this is to look at a rolling average of three consecutive polls. Using this approach, Obama leads McCain 49% to 39%.

Oregon, with seven electoral votes, has gone for Democratic candidates in every presidential election since 1988, although in three of those elections the winner had 47% of the vote or less. Sen. John Kerry carried the state with 51% of the vote in 2004 versus 47% who voted for President Bush and 1% for independent candidate Ralph Nader. Rasmussen Markets data gives the Democrats a % chance of carrying the state again.

Nationally, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows Barack Obama holding a modest lead over John McCain. The results, showing a modest bounce for Obama, have been remarkably stable since Obama wrapped up the Democratic Presidential Nomination just over a week ago

In the latest Oregon survey, Obama has a sizable edge among women voters who prefer him to McCain 49% to 38%, with six percent (6%) favoring a third-party candidate and the same number undecided. Male voters are more ambivalent, giving Obama a smaller 43% to 38% edge, with 12% preferring another candidate and eight percent (8%) undecided.

McCain now has the support of 76% of Oregon Republicans, up eight points from last month. Seventy-seven percent (77%) of Democrats back Obama, little changed from May.

McCain leads Obama among middle income voters while Obama has sizable leads over his Republican opponent among those at both the upper and lower end of the scale. Those making $40,000-$60,000 a year who give McCain a 45% to 40% edge and voters earning $60,000-$75,000 per year who choose McCain 57% to 35%.

Oregon voters by a 65% to 28% margin reject the idea that McCain is too old to be president.

Interestingly, despite his overall lead in the state, Obama is viewed as too inexperienced to be president by 41% of voters while 48% disagree. Eleven percent (11%) are undecided. Those numbers are similar to the national average.

Fifty-one percent (51%) say bringing the troops home is more important than winning the war, but 40% disagree. Only one in four voters (25%) think McCain will bring the troops home by the end of his first term; 62% believe Obama will do it within four years. Those numbers, too, are similar to the national average.

The vast majority of Oregon voters (71%) believe the government has become a special interest group, while 12% disagree and 17% aren’t sure. Seventy percent (70%) do not think government represents the will of the people; 15% say it does, and a similar number are undecided. Eighty-five percent (85%), however, are at least somewhat confident that their votes will be accurately counted, but 13% do not believe that. Only 44% think elections are fair to voters, while 37% say they are not. Once again, the views in Oregon are similar to the view of the nation.

President Bush’s approval rating has gone up slightly in the past month: 32% now say he is doing a good or excellent job, up from 29% last month. Fifty-three percent (53%) say he is doing a poor job, down from 57% in May.

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